MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST - update

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Day and Time: Wednesday 1130

Storm Update:

No significant changes to this morning forecast.  

Models have a slight decrease in precipitation totals but with the convergence zone developing, we will stay with a potential foot of snow by mid-morning tomorrow.

The heaviest period will be between 5pm and midnight tonight with snow slowly diminishing through the early morning hours.

Temperature will peak around 36 degrees this afternoon with freezing levels falling to 3500’ tonight.   Winds will be persistent in the 10-20mph range with gust +25 likely.

From this morning’s Wx. 

  

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time:  Wednesday 0700

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:        .33swe, 1-3” of snow

Temperature profile:      32 base,  27 ridge

Pass level winds:            moderate, westerly

Barometer:                    1022mb’s and holding

Sky:                               OC

Radar: There are a few snow showers falling in Snohomish county with a long fetch of moisture off shore.

The Forecast:  Heavy mountain snow and wind begins this afternoon with mixed rain anticipated tomorrow. 

Long Range: Mixed rain and snow showers linger through Friday with another strong snow storm taking shape for the weekend.

   

The Science: First, there is an impressive blizzard tracking across the Midwestern plains today - 40-50mph winds, 1-2’ of snow with single digit wind chills….Yikes.

The Cascade Mountains will get their own dose of wind and snow as a strong frontal system drives in from the NW.  This storm has all the fixings for some significant snow…. frontal wave, convergence zone development, 20+mph ridge top winds and plenty of moisture.

Tomorrow, a trailing warm front will push freezing levels up above 4500’ with mixed rain and snow added to the game.  The moisture will diminish to showers tomorrow afternoon but stick around through Friday.  Another similar event is taking shape for Saturday/Sunday – ie more snow.
   
Forecast confidence: Good – however, the convergence zone dynamic is always a wild card.

Values from 4am today through

 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .75-1 snow: 8-10+ Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .75  snow: 3-5 Trend and Timing: Snow increases this afternoon.  Rain will mix in below 4500’ tomorrow.

Temperature: Low:28   High: 34 Freezing level:  3500’ - 4500’ Trend and Timing:    The freezing levels will hover near 4000’ for the next 24hrs.  Daytime temperatures will recover just above freezing this afternoon and again tomorrow.

Winds Base: 10-15 WNW Ridge Top: 15-25 WNW Trend and Timing: WNW flow will strengthen today with ridge top gusts topping 25mph.