April 15, 2019

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Day and Time:  Monday 0700

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:        .05swe, 1” of snow
Temperature profile:     28 base,  23 ridges
Pass level winds:            Light and out of the west
Barometer:                    1008mb’s and steady
Sky:                               high clouds with pass level fog
Radar: dry in the mountains with some moisture echo’s popping up over the coastal waters.

The Forecast:  Partly cloudy with temperature in the upper 30’s or even 40 today.   Mostly dry tomorrow with light mixed rain and snow moving in tomorrow night.

Long Range: Light rain on Wednesday with another push of moderate moisture on Thursday and Frida; which will likely be rain.   
  
The Science: I hope you were able to see the amazing alpenglow this morning.  

An upper-level high pressure ridge cut off the moisture sooner than expected yesterday.  The atmosphere stabilized overnight with mostly dry weather expected for the next 24-36hrs. 

A weak low pressure system, sliding down the coastline, will spin clouds and weak bands of moisture into the mountain beginning tomorrow evening.  Warm advection will accompany this counterclockwise rotation with freezing levels slowly rising.  Therefore, no significant snow accumulation is expected.

Forecast confidence: Good.

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 0  snow: 0

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .25   snow: trace on upper mountain

Trend and Timing:
Dry conditions will persist through noon tomorrow with light precipitation developing tomorrow night.


Temperature:
Low: 28  High: 40
Freezing level:  3000’ – 5000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise to 5000’ this afternoon with overnight temperatures struggling to drop below freezing.

 
Winds
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 E

Trend and Timing:
Light east flow will develop today and then shift back to WSW tomorrow.


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