MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Day and Time:  Thursday 0630

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:        .69swe, 2” mid mountain and above

Temperature profile:     34 base, 29 ridge

Pass level winds:            light, westerly

Barometer:                    1013mb’s and steady

Sky:                               Pass level fog and overcast

Radar: the mountains are beginning to dry out with light precipitation blips showing up over Goldendale Wa.

The Forecast: Mostly dry with afternoon sunbreak and warm today; temperatures could reach 50.   More mixed snow and rain tomorrow.

Long Range:  Periods of rain with periods of snow will be the pattern through the weekend.  A drying trend with light passing showers will begin early next week.

  

The Science:  An upper level ridge with warm southerly flow will produce dry conditions and partial clearing today.  A series of weakening frontal bands will begin to move through the region tomorrow.  Models have these fronts slowing and occluding as they move onshore. Thus precipitation values are being downgraded.  Pulses of cooler air aloft will shift precipitation between rain and snow through early Sunday morning.

Storm cycle totals from 4am tomorrow through 4am Sunday =  +- 2”swe, 4-6” of snow above 4000’. 

Forecast confidence:  Good today with confidence falling through the weekend.  Models are inconsistent Sunday and beyond.  

Values from 4am today through

 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .25  snow: 0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5  snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Mixed rain and snow begins around midnight tonight with intermittent showers expected tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 34   High: 50 Freezing level: 7000’ – 4500’. Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak +7000’ this afternoon and then begin to fall through the day tomorrow.

Winds Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE Trend and Timing: Surface flow will shift easterly today with SE flow aloft developing as well.