MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Day and Time:  Monday 0700

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:        .09swe, 0 snow

Temperature profile:     32 base, 30 ridge

Pass level winds:            light, easterly

Barometer:                    1014mb’s steady

Sky:                               clear

Radar: a main band of moisture is tracking along the southern tier of the state with clear skies over Stevens Pass and to the north.

The Forecast: Increasing clouds, light rain with temperatures reaching into the 40’s can be anticipated today. Mixed rain and snow increases tonight with showers persisting tomorrow.  

Long Range: A more organized frontal system arrives on Wednesday with measurable snow possible for Thursday morning.  

  

The Science:  The southern boundary of the developing low pressure trough will track through the region today.  SW advection will drive temperatures up today with cooler NW flow filling in tonight.

A shift in pattern develops tomorrow with cooler unstable NW flow developing.  This will bring favorable freezing levels and snow to the Pass on Wednesday/Thursday.  Active weather with snow and rain will continue for the next 5-7+ days.

Forecast confidence:  Models have struggled with this unorganized weather pattern, so confidence is fair.   I took my winter tires off yesterday so it is sure to snow.

Values from 4am today through

 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .25-.5  snow: 1-2 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25  snow: 1-2 Trend and Timing: Light mixed rain and snow showers continue.

Temperature: Low: 30   High: 40 Freezing level: 6000’ – 3500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak around 6000’ this afternoon and then fall to < 4000’ through the night.

Winds Base: 0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 5-10 SE shifting W Trend and Timing: Surface east flow with shift westerly later today.  SW flow aloft will turn NW over the next 24hrs.