April 9, 2019

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time:  Tuesday 0700

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:        .54swe,  2” of new snow
Temperature profile:     34 base, 31 ridges
Pass level winds:            light, westerly
Barometer:                    1013mb’s steady
Sky:                               foggy
Radar:  moderate to heavy precipitation in the convergence zones, with eastern Washington drying out.

The Forecast:  Mixed snow and rain this morning with a dry period this afternoon and evening.   Snow and wind tomorrow.

Long Range:  Snow continues through Thursday with a potential of 6-10” possible.  Friday will be mostly dry and warm with another round of mixed rain and snow expected over the weekend.  
  
The Science:  Unstable NW flow will keep the moisture coming through early Friday morning.  Freezing levels will be at or below 4000’ which means mostly snow for Stevens Pass.   Storm totals by the end of the day on Thursday could exceed 1.5”swe and or +-10” of snow.  

A weak high pressure ridge sneaks in on Friday with rising freezing levels.  NW flow with cooler temperatures returns over the weekend with more potential snow.  

Forecast confidence:   Fair due to timing of moisture with freezing levels.

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water:  .25 snow: 1-2

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .5 snow: 1-3

Trend and Timing:
There will be a lull in the moisture this afternoon with the next push moving in tomorrow.


Temperature:
Low: 28  High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ -3500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will drop below pass level over the next 24hrs.

 
Winds
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-15 NW  gusty

Trend and Timing:
NW flow will strengthen today.  Winds remain westerly though Thursday.


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0800 Start Wed Jan 28th, no ABS