MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Thursday, December 5, 2019, 0830a

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:            .26 SWE, 0 snow

Temperature profile:         32 base,  30 ridge

Pass level winds:                 Light SE

Barometer:                       1013mb’s and rising

Sky:                                  Fog

Radar:      Most of the state is dry with clearing beginning to the west.

The Forecast:  These light snow showers and morning fog should lift and slowly burn off today with dry conditions expected through the night.  Clouds increase tomorrow with mixed rain and snow showers expected over the weekend.  

Weekend storm totals could be in the neighborhood of .75”SWE and 2-5”of snow.

Long Range:  Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will be mostly dry with sun breaks. The mixed rain and snow shower pattern returns on Wednesday with some snow accumulating expected heading into the weekend.  

  

The Science:  A large low pressure system will slowly creep its way toward the western coast over the next few days.  The center of the low is centered off of the Northern California coast with the northern boundary stretching north.  This will be the mechanism for this weekend’s moisture and mix of temperatures. 

SSW flow will keep freezing levels at or above 4000’. However, easterly flow and a imbedded cold front will aid in the snow vs rain game.  With some luck, we could see +-5” of snow on the ground by Sunday morning. 

A high pressure ridge slides into place on Sunday with dry and clear weather expected for the start of the week.  

Long range models are developing a system in the Gulf of Alaska that has potential to bring snow our way late next week.  Details and timing are still very much in question so stay tuned. 

Confidence: Good short term, fair to poor for long range.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .10 snow: trace Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25  snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Dry through noon tomorrow with rain and snow showers expected tomorrow night and Saturday.

Temperature: Low: 30   High: Freezing level: +- 3500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels, with the aid of east flow will hover around the 3500’ level into early Saturday morning.

Winds Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 0-10 ESE Trend and Timing: Pass level east flow with SE flow aloft will be the flow pattern for the next 24-36hrs.