MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Thursday, February 20, 2020, 0930

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:        0

Temperature profile:     20 base,  19 ridge

Pass level winds:             light easterly

Barometer:                     1022mb’s

Sky:                                 mostly clear

Radar:       Dry with high cirrus clouds moving in from the south west

The Forecast:  Another beautiful day with some high clouds developing.  Dry again tomorrow with increasing clouds.  Daytime temperatures will reach into the mid 30’s today and again tomorrow.

The Science: The high pressure that brought us this beautiful weather will begin to flatten and drift SE over the next 24hrs.   Warmer SW flow will take over with freezing level rising to +-5000’ tomorrow.   Generally warm westerly flow with weak pressure gradients will produce mostly clouds heading into Saturday.

The next system of interest enters the scene Saturday afternoon or early Sunday morning (models currently disagree on the timing).  This system is being fed by a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska with an imbedded cold front – thus expect falling temperatures and snow for Sunday.   

Long Range. Snow lingers into Monday.  Long range outlooks differ significantly on the prospects of next week, so we wait for better beta.  

Confidence:  Good for the short-term, fair to poor for the weekend due to model discrepancies.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 0 snow: 0  Tomorrow’s 24hr water: 0   snow: 0 Trend and Timing: Dry through Saturday afternoon.

Temperature: Low: 20   High:  34 Freezing level: 2500’- 3500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will rise above 4000’ on the western slopes with slightly lower freezing levels to the east.

Winds Base: 0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 0-10 ESE shifting W  Trend and Timing: The easterly flow will slowly shift to westerly overnight.