Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Date: Monday, February 23, 2020
Current Observations:
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24hr Precipitation: 1” snow /
.07” SWE
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Temperature profile: 28 base / 26 upper mtn
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Pass level winds: West 10-15
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Barometer: 1006 and falling rapidly
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Sky: Obscured, snowing heavily
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Radar: Widespread precipitation across
Western WA
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The Forecast:
Heavy snow and windy today with cooling overnight. Snow showers becoming light
and ending tomorrow.
The Science: A deep low
pressure system riding along a strong jet streak is making landfall in
Washington this morning. The barometer is falling rapidly indicating the
approach of the low, and temperatures have bumped up a notch as the warm sector
rides over us. The cold front is not far behind and freezing levels will remain
well below pass level. The winds have increased as the front approaches and
should remain moderate to strong and gusty all day. A strong burst of low level
post-frontal westerly winds will maintain orographic showers this afternoon and
tonight with convergence zones likely setting up in the Central Cascades. If
that all wasn’t enough, temperature lapse rates in the middle layers of the
atmosphere seem to support convective build up with thunder possible as well.
NW upper level flow will turn more northerly Monday with snow turning to
showers Monday morning and winds abating. Temperatures should remain cool
Monday.
Long Range: High pressure builds
Tuesday for a quiet day. Light snow is possible Wednesday with zonal flow
bringing a weak system to our north.
Confidence: Good
for general setup, poor for exact upper end snow amounts.
Values from 4am today through 4am
tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 1.5 snow: 14-18”
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .25 snow: 4”
Trend and Timing:
Moderate
to heavy snow today, with heavy snow continuing tonight, becoming showery
Monday.
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Temperature:
Low: 20 High: 28
Freezing level: 3000’ – 1000’
Trend and Timing:
Rapid
cooling today and tonight.
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Winds
Base: W 10-20
Ridge Top: W 30-40 with
higher gusts possible
Trend and Timing:
Gusty
winds have begun this morning and should continue most of the day and tonight
before dying down Monday morning.
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