February 24, 2020

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST



Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Monday, February 24, 2020, 0730a

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:        1.71swe,  15” of snow
Temperature profile:     24 base, 22 ridge
Pass level winds:             strong, westerly
Barometer:                     1024mb’s and rising
Sky:                               overcast and snowing                                                
Radar:        Convergence showers with drying to the west


The Forecast:   The snow and the wind will diminish today with cool temperatures remaining.   Partial clearing overnight with light passing mixed rain and snow showers tomorrow afternoon/evening.   

The Science:  This morning’s radar shows the convergence zone beginning to weaken with dry conditions to the west.  The moisture and wind will begin to diminish as the offshore high pressure ridge amplifies.  The temperature profile should remain fairly consistent today with the exception of a sunbreak or two this afternoon. 

A weakening warm front will track across the southern tier of the state tomorrow with rising freezing levels and some light precipitation for Stevens Pass.  The ridge of high pressure rebounds on Wednesday, confining most of the moisture to the north for the remainder of the week.  Warm southerly flow will kick in with day time high temperatures reaching into the high 40’s or even 50f on Friday.   

Long Range.  Depending on the stubbornness of the high pressure there may be a chance a snow over the upcoming weekend – or not.    

Confidence:  Good through Friday.  

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: lt .25 snow:  1-2 

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water:  .25  snow:  trace

Trend and Timing:
Snow diminishes today with drying overnight.


Temperature:
Low: 22   High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ – 3000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will stabilize around 2500’ today with some daytime warming likely.   Freezing levels push up to 4500’ tomorrow.

 
Winds
Base: 5-10 W diminishing
Ridge Top:  5-15 WNW

Trend and Timing:
Winds will diminish and shift NW today.


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