MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Thursday, February 27, 2020, 0830

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:        0.02swe,  0 snow

Temperature profile:     33 base,

Pass level winds:

Barometer:                    1026mb’s and holding

Sky:                 overcast with very light snow falling

Radar:       dry in the mountains with rain falling Bellingham north

The Forecast:  Mostly dry today and most of tomorrow with temperatures peaking near 40 today.   Snow arrives tomorrow night with snow showers persisting through Saturday. 

The Science:  The next 24-36hrs will be fairly quiet with mild temperatures.  A cut-off low pressure cell with an embedded cold front will track into southern BC tomorrow.  Cool unstable NW flow will be pulled along its southern boundary; thus, expect falling temperatures, good orographic snowfall (convergence) and windy conditions heading into the weekend.  Snow totals are in questions due to the convergence dynamics… Snow showers, gusty winds with freezing levels -+2500’ will be the weather game on Saturday. 

Long Range. Sunday will be mostly dry with some remnant snow showers in the morning.  Next week will be very active with multiple storms.  Freezing levels will be on the cusp of rain vs snow for the start of this storm cycle with cooling later on in the week.    

Confidence:  Good short term, poor long term.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 0 snow:  0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5 -.75   snow: 6-8 Trend and Timing: Dry through the night with snow arriving after 4pm tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 32   High: 40 Freezing level: 6000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will top out near 6000’ today and remain above pass level through tomorrow afternoon.

Winds Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top: 5-10 W Trend and Timing: Light westerly flow expected through tomorrow.