10/25/2010 Weather
General Discussion: FIRST SNOW! A shift to a NW flow pattern occurred over the weekend, opening the door for the first winter storm of the season. Mixed rain and snow will continue through tomorrow with accumulation possible.
Long-term: Wednesday and Thursday look dry with a weaker system pulling up warmer air from the SW by the weekend. The stage seems to be set for a series of storms to track toward the PNW for the next 7-10 days.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Precipitation
“ Water: .5-.75
“ of Snow: 6-10”
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 30 High: 34
5000’ Low: 28 High: 32
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 10-15 W
Ridge top: 10-20 WSW gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The moisture will continue through tomorrow night. With some luck it will be all snow, however, wouldn’t be surprised to see some rain in the base area from time to time. Precipitation will taper off early Wednesday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover around 4000’ today and then begin to drop to 3500’overnight. A warming trend will begin on Wednesday with freezing levels spiking up around 7000’during the weekend.
Winds: Winds could be a factor as the Puget Sound Convergence Zone takes aim at Stevens Pass later today, could see gust +20mph through the night. Impressive 35’ waves are currently pounding the coast.
Enjoy the white stuff while it last. JDM
October 25, 2010
October 19, 2010
WEATHER FORECAST
I WILL BE STARTING MY DAILY FORECAST NOV 1ST.
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST STORM OF THE FALL WILL HIT THE PNW THIS WEEKEND. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 5 AND 6K.
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST STORM OF THE FALL WILL HIT THE PNW THIS WEEKEND. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 5 AND 6K.
September 27, 2010
September 20, 2010
THINKING SNOW?
LA NINA HAS ARRIVED
…Nearly all models predict La Nina conditions to continue through early 2011, and given the strong cooling observed over the last several months... La Nina conditions are expected to strengthen and last at least through the northern hemisphere winter and very likely into the spring.
The October outlook calls for an increased chance for below average temperatures and above average precipitation for the Northwest.
…Nearly all models predict La Nina conditions to continue through early 2011, and given the strong cooling observed over the last several months... La Nina conditions are expected to strengthen and last at least through the northern hemisphere winter and very likely into the spring.
The October outlook calls for an increased chance for below average temperatures and above average precipitation for the Northwest.
August 16, 2010
Index wall saved
FYI - Harbor Properties/ Stimson Bullet, had a hand and money in this. A quick video for your veiwing pleasure. Nice to keep that wall intact.
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/99207259.html?tab=video
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/99207259.html?tab=video
August 8, 2010
The little girl is here for the winter
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
5 August 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.
During July 2010 La Niña conditions developed, as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices decreased with values less than -1.0°C in Niño 1+2, 3, and 3.4 regions at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to reflect a deep layer of below-average temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific (Fig. 5). Enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds continued over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the development and strengthening of La Niña conditions.
Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue through early 2011 (Fig. 6). However, there is disagreement among the models over the eventual strength of La Niña. Most dynamical models generally predict a moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the statistical model forecasts indicate a weaker episode. Given the strong cooling observed over the last several months and the apparent ocean-atmosphere coupling (positive feedback), the dynamical model outcome of a moderate-to-strong episode is favored at this time. Therefore, La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010-11.
Expected La Niña impacts during August-October 2010 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, but strengthen considerably during late fall and winter. Also, La Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 September 2010. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
5 August 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.
During July 2010 La Niña conditions developed, as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices decreased with values less than -1.0°C in Niño 1+2, 3, and 3.4 regions at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to reflect a deep layer of below-average temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific (Fig. 5). Enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds continued over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the development and strengthening of La Niña conditions.
Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue through early 2011 (Fig. 6). However, there is disagreement among the models over the eventual strength of La Niña. Most dynamical models generally predict a moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the statistical model forecasts indicate a weaker episode. Given the strong cooling observed over the last several months and the apparent ocean-atmosphere coupling (positive feedback), the dynamical model outcome of a moderate-to-strong episode is favored at this time. Therefore, La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010-11.
Expected La Niña impacts during August-October 2010 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, but strengthen considerably during late fall and winter. Also, La Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 September 2010. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
July 13, 2010
Snow mobiles at the Pass. Get them now
There are several snowmobiles that appear to be abandoned in the employee housing area that must be stored properly for the summer. One near cabin #2 and two near the Patrol building.
Please try to contact whomever these machines may belong to and let them know that the machines need to be neatly stored near their owners housing unit, set on wooden blocks and covered with a neutral colored cover (no blue tarps).
If not properly stored for the summer, these snowmobiles will be removed (hauled away) at the end of August.
Thank you!
Please try to contact whomever these machines may belong to and let them know that the machines need to be neatly stored near their owners housing unit, set on wooden blocks and covered with a neutral colored cover (no blue tarps).
If not properly stored for the summer, these snowmobiles will be removed (hauled away) at the end of August.
Thank you!
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