November 30, 2012
Mountain Weather Forecast - Time: 0900
Another rain bullet will be fired at the resort today as freezing levels hover around mid mountain and more bands of precipitation move through the mountains.
Long-term: A cold front, entering the scene tomorrow morning, will bring cooler temperatures and snow to the Pass for the weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .5
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .5 -.75
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow =0-4 base area, 4-8 on the upper mountain.
Trend and Timing:
Moderate mixed rain and snow will continue for the next 24 hrs.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 32 High: 36
Freezing level: 5000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain +-5000’ through the night. Temperatures will begin to fall in the wake of tomorrow’s cold front. East flow will help keep surface temperatures near freezing.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE shifting WSW
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue through the night. A southwest wind shift is expected tomorrow. Watch for gusty ridge top winds tomorrow morning.
Long-term: A cold front, entering the scene tomorrow morning, will bring cooler temperatures and snow to the Pass for the weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .5
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .5 -.75
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow =0-4 base area, 4-8 on the upper mountain.
Trend and Timing:
Moderate mixed rain and snow will continue for the next 24 hrs.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 32 High: 36
Freezing level: 5000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain +-5000’ through the night. Temperatures will begin to fall in the wake of tomorrow’s cold front. East flow will help keep surface temperatures near freezing.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE shifting WSW
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue through the night. A southwest wind shift is expected tomorrow. Watch for gusty ridge top winds tomorrow morning.
November 29, 2012
Mountain Weather Forecast - Time: 0900
Strong easterly gradients have once again been in our favor for keeping the precipitation white. The approaching cold front will bring this steady snow to and end once it moves east of the mountains in a few hours.
Long-term: Intermittent mixed rain and snow showers will continue through the weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .10
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm=.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = +.25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 2-4
Trend and Timing:
The snow will change to scattered showers this afternoon and tomorrow. Mixed rain and snow below 5000’ will be possible tomorrow and Friday.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 34
Freezing level: 4000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ through the next 24-36hrs.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 ESE
Trend and Timing:
Easterly winds will continue to move through the Pass for the next 24hrs.
Long-term: Intermittent mixed rain and snow showers will continue through the weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .10
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm=.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = +.25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 2-4
Trend and Timing:
The snow will change to scattered showers this afternoon and tomorrow. Mixed rain and snow below 5000’ will be possible tomorrow and Friday.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 34
Freezing level: 4000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ through the next 24-36hrs.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 ESE
Trend and Timing:
Easterly winds will continue to move through the Pass for the next 24hrs.
November 28, 2012
Start Time Thursday---8am
Pray for me, if the Seahawks don't win on Sunday I will be selling my interest in the franchise which includes the hat.
Jon
Jon
Mountain Weather Forecast - Time: 1000
The first wave of precipitation has lit up the radar over the San Juan Islands this morning. Snow should begin to appear in the mountains in a few hours. Freezing rain is likely at lower elevations, especially on the east slopes, so careful on the commute home tonight.
Long-term: The low pressure system parked off of the NW coast will continue to spin weather fronts through the PNW for the next 4-6 days. Freezing levels will oscillate between 4000’ and 5000’ through this whole storm series.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=.25
“Of additional water by 4am=.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .5 - .75
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 6-10”
Trend and Timing:
Mostly snow is expected here at the resort, but do not rule out the possibility of some freezing rain and rain below 4500’.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 26 High: 34
Freezing level: 3000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
East flow influence will help keep surface temperatures below 32f for most of the day.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 SSE
Trend and Timing:
Light easterly winds at Pass level with gusty SSE winds along the ridge tops will be the pattern for these first few fronts.
Long-term: The low pressure system parked off of the NW coast will continue to spin weather fronts through the PNW for the next 4-6 days. Freezing levels will oscillate between 4000’ and 5000’ through this whole storm series.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=.25
“Of additional water by 4am=.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .5 - .75
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 6-10”
Trend and Timing:
Mostly snow is expected here at the resort, but do not rule out the possibility of some freezing rain and rain below 4500’.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 26 High: 34
Freezing level: 3000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
East flow influence will help keep surface temperatures below 32f for most of the day.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 SSE
Trend and Timing:
Light easterly winds at Pass level with gusty SSE winds along the ridge tops will be the pattern for these first few fronts.
November 27, 2012
Mountain Weather Forecast - Time: 0930
This brisk east wind, pushing the inversion fog through the Pass this morning, is the first indicator of the approaching weather system. Another dry day is expected before a series of fronts begins to hit the PNW.
Long-term: The entire western seaboard is beginning to feel the effects from a massive low pressure system churning in the Pacific. For the PNW, this will spin a series of fronts through the Cascade Mountains starting tomorrow and lasting through the weekend. Freezing levels will bounce between 4000’ and 5000’ as these fronts come and go. Therefore, expect a mix of rain and snow here at the resort. Hopefully, with the easterly flow influence and good cold air aloft, we should receive more snow than rain.
Impressive system that covers most of the North Pacific.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= 0
“Of additional water by 4am= 0
“Of additional water by 12pm=<.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 0
Trend and Timing:
No significant precipitation is expected to reach the mountains until tomorrow afternoon.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 22 High: 32
Freezing level: 2000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will begin to rise today under southerly flow aloft. Freezing levels will likely ascend to +- 4000’ by the end of the day. East flow will allow temperatures to remain at or just below freezing.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 SE
Trend and Timing:
East flow at the surface will continue through the next 24hrs. Southeasterly flow aloft will develop through the day.
Long-term: The entire western seaboard is beginning to feel the effects from a massive low pressure system churning in the Pacific. For the PNW, this will spin a series of fronts through the Cascade Mountains starting tomorrow and lasting through the weekend. Freezing levels will bounce between 4000’ and 5000’ as these fronts come and go. Therefore, expect a mix of rain and snow here at the resort. Hopefully, with the easterly flow influence and good cold air aloft, we should receive more snow than rain.
Impressive system that covers most of the North Pacific.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= 0
“Of additional water by 4am= 0
“Of additional water by 12pm=<.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 0
Trend and Timing:
No significant precipitation is expected to reach the mountains until tomorrow afternoon.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 22 High: 32
Freezing level: 2000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will begin to rise today under southerly flow aloft. Freezing levels will likely ascend to +- 4000’ by the end of the day. East flow will allow temperatures to remain at or just below freezing.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 SE
Trend and Timing:
East flow at the surface will continue through the next 24hrs. Southeasterly flow aloft will develop through the day.
November 26, 2012
Mountain Weather Forecast - Time: 1300
The sun is a great trade off for it not snowing. The sunshine will continue for a few more days as high pressure remains over the region. A gradual warming trend will begin tomorrow.
Long-term: The strong low pressure system spinning out in the central Pacific will gradually make it way toward the Washington coast throughout the week. Therefore, the pattern will change to another series of weather fronts starting on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= 0
“Of additional water by 4am= 0
“Of additional water by 12pm= 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 0
Trend and Timing:
No additional precipitation expected until late Wednesday.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 22 High: 32
Freezing level: 3000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperatures will remain low for another night. Freezing level will begin to rise starting tomorrow and extend their climb through the week.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
Light easterly winds will continue flowing through the Pass for first part of the week.
Long-term: The strong low pressure system spinning out in the central Pacific will gradually make it way toward the Washington coast throughout the week. Therefore, the pattern will change to another series of weather fronts starting on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= 0
“Of additional water by 4am= 0
“Of additional water by 12pm= 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 0
Trend and Timing:
No additional precipitation expected until late Wednesday.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 22 High: 32
Freezing level: 3000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperatures will remain low for another night. Freezing level will begin to rise starting tomorrow and extend their climb through the week.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
Light easterly winds will continue flowing through the Pass for first part of the week.
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Check out the large low pressure system currently circulating out in the Pacific. This is very slow moving and will begin spinning bands of moisture (likely rain to start) into the mountains late Wednesday night.
November 25, 2012
November 24, 2012
The Weekend Weather Briefing:
Unfortunately, yesterday’s cold front stalled just west of the Cascade foothills. The stalled front allowed the fetch of precipitation to continue pumping rain into the north central mountains. The Pass received just under 2” of water during the last 24hrs with little to no snow below 5000’. Bummer.
The cold front (below) is now heading through eastern Washington. We should begin to cool off a bit as air from the north drops in. A drying trend begins today as high pressure builds over the region. Expect dry conditions with increasing sunshine as the next few days’ progress.
Below is an 850mb models for Wednesday Nov 28th. Notice the large vertically stacked low pressure system extending from the norhern gulf, south. This has the potential to generate warm southerly flow and rain towards the end of the week.
November 23, 2012
Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast - Time: 10:00am
General Discussion: Satellite imagery shows the leading edge of the approaching warm front passing over the Olympic Mountain range at 9am this morning. East flow will help keep the snow machine going until the warm front passes. The snow is expected to turn to rain below 4500’ once the front passes later today. An approaching cold front will keep the warm up short lived; it will also initiate an end to the precipitation tonight. With the exception of a few left over showers lurking around the Cascade Crest, tomorrow will be mainly dry with sun.
Long-term: Dry and chilly weather is expected to continue through early next week. Warm southerly flow develops mid-week with rising freezing levels and a chance of more precipitation.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = < .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 1-3”
Trend and Timing:
Snow is expected to turn to rain below 4500’ sometime early this afternoon. The precipitation will quickly taper off this evening with dry conditions developing through the weekend.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 34
Freezing level: 3500’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will increase with the approach and passing of the warm front today. Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-15 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will kick in once the front passes. Strong gusty ridge top winds will also accompany the front. Light westerly winds will keep moving through the Pass throughout the weekend.
Long-term: Dry and chilly weather is expected to continue through early next week. Warm southerly flow develops mid-week with rising freezing levels and a chance of more precipitation.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = < .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 1-3”
Trend and Timing:
Snow is expected to turn to rain below 4500’ sometime early this afternoon. The precipitation will quickly taper off this evening with dry conditions developing through the weekend.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 34
Freezing level: 3500’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will increase with the approach and passing of the warm front today. Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-15 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will kick in once the front passes. Strong gusty ridge top winds will also accompany the front. Light westerly winds will keep moving through the Pass throughout the weekend.
November 22, 2012
11/22/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Time: 10:00
General Discussion: 10” of new snow and morning alpenglow on the mountains, life is good. Today will be cool and dry with precipitation and rising temperatures arriving late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
Long-term: A cold front arrives tomorrow night leaving light snow showers and cooler temperatures for the weekend. Dry and sunny weather will begins on Sunday and continue through the first part of next week.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= 0
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = +-.5
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 3-6”
Trend and Timing:
Snow will appear shortly after midnight tonight. Snow is expected to change to rain once the east flow gives up tomorrow. The precipitation will taper off tomorrow night with light snow showers persisting through the weekend.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will gradually increase through the night reaching 5000’ by mid-day tomorrow. Surface temperatures will stay below freezing until the wind shifts SW tomorrow.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting SW
Trend and Timing:
East flow will shift southwesterly then westerly through the day tomorrow. Watch for strong westerly winds along the ridge tops tomorrow afternoon/evening.
November 21, 2012
11/21/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: Radar shows snow showers continuing to move into the mountains. These gusty winds and snow showers will continue for the remainder of the day. Clearing is expected tonight with clouds thickening tomorrow.
Long-term: The next front will reach the mountains tomorrow night or early Friday morning with snow changing to rain during the day on Friday. High pressure building off the coast will bring dry and possibly sunny weather to the PNW starting on Saturday and lasting through the first part of next week.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25
“Of additional water by 4am= >.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = + .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 3-5”
Trend and Timing:
We should receive the forecasted 4”of snow by noon today. Snow will end after 10pm tonight with dry conditions tomorrow.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 3500’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will dip a bit lower tonight. Freezing levels will begin to climb through the day tomorrow reaching 4000’ by late afternoon.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W gusty.
Trend and Timing:
Winds will begin to mellow tonight and begin to shift easterly tomorrow.
Long-term: The next front will reach the mountains tomorrow night or early Friday morning with snow changing to rain during the day on Friday. High pressure building off the coast will bring dry and possibly sunny weather to the PNW starting on Saturday and lasting through the first part of next week.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25
“Of additional water by 4am= >.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = + .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 3-5”
Trend and Timing:
We should receive the forecasted 4”of snow by noon today. Snow will end after 10pm tonight with dry conditions tomorrow.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 3500’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will dip a bit lower tonight. Freezing levels will begin to climb through the day tomorrow reaching 4000’ by late afternoon.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W gusty.
Trend and Timing:
Winds will begin to mellow tonight and begin to shift easterly tomorrow.
November 20, 2012
11/20/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: The next front, expected to pass over the mountain in a few hours, will bring light precipitation to the mountains this afternoon. Tomorrow will be cool, windy and snowy.
Long-term: Turkey day will generally dry as a weak upper level ridge passes over the mountains. Another warm front, approaching from the southwest, will bring rising freezing levels and more precipitation to the mountains on Friday/Saturday.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=.10
“Of additional water by 4am= >.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .25 -.5
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Most of the snow will happen after 4am tomorrow morning with just light showers this afternoon and evening. Snow will begin to taper off late tomorrow afternoon.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly diminish through the night. Surface temperature should stay below freezing through early Thursday morning.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-10 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W and strengthening
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue tonight and then shift westerly tomorrow. A high wind event with gust of +20-40mph will be possible as strong westerlies develop during the day tomorrow.
Long-term: Turkey day will generally dry as a weak upper level ridge passes over the mountains. Another warm front, approaching from the southwest, will bring rising freezing levels and more precipitation to the mountains on Friday/Saturday.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=.10
“Of additional water by 4am= >.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .25 -.5
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Most of the snow will happen after 4am tomorrow morning with just light showers this afternoon and evening. Snow will begin to taper off late tomorrow afternoon.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly diminish through the night. Surface temperature should stay below freezing through early Thursday morning.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-10 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W and strengthening
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue tonight and then shift westerly tomorrow. A high wind event with gust of +20-40mph will be possible as strong westerlies develop during the day tomorrow.
November 19, 2012
11/19/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: 14” of new snow overnight brings the base total to around 24”and building. The approaching warm front, just now hitting the coast, will cause the freezing levels to rise to 5000’ today. And thus, rain will still be possible today. The good news is that the water tap will be shut off tonight thanks to some weak upper level ridging.
Long-term: A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and more fresh snow tomorrow and Wednesday. There will be a possibility of an additional 6-10” of snow by Wednesday if the temperatures stay in our favor.
Things get very unpredictable after Wednesday. Now models have a high pressure ridge building over the inter mountain west, which if true, will hamper the Thanksgiving systems. No use forecasting beyond Thursday until the models begin to agree.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .5
“Of additional water by 4am=>.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= >.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = + .5
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 4-8” above 4500’ 2-4” below 4500’.
Trend and Timing:
We should get the forecasted 1.25” of water by noon today. Heavy precipitation will continue for the rest of the day. Little to no moisture is expected after 10pm tonight. The next wave of moisture will move in tomorrow afternoon with more wet snow and or rain below 4500’.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 23 High: 36
Freezing level: 4000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing will continue their climb reaching 5000’ by noon today. Freezing levels will continue to oscillate between 4000’ and 5000’ through Wednesday morning.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-10 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 10-20 WSW
Trend and Timing:
Surface easterlies will slowly be overridden today as strong SW flow aloft enters the mountains. Surface easterly will come and go with the passing of the next systems.
November 18, 2012
The next weather event to watch
I am now shifting my attention to what is to come later in the week. Models are showing a huge plume of water gaining energy and taking aim at the PNW on Thursday. You can see it below in the east/west horizontal cloud stream stretching across the entire Pacific. Models have this meeting up with warm SW flow (6-8000’ freezing levels) right in time for it to hit the PNW. Long range models have some unbelievable precipitation amounts over 20” of rain over the Holiday weekend. Even if these amounts are high it still has potential for serious flooding throughout the state.
Cliff Mass explains this well on his blog, check it out.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
Cliff Mass explains this well on his blog, check it out.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
11/18/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: Telemetry shows 4-5” of new snow in the base area. The next system will bring heavy precipitation to the resort tonight and tomorrow. Expect wet heavy snow through the night changing to rain tomorrow. See 24hr freezing levels trends below.
Long-term: Active weather will continue as several more systems set up to hit the PNW with similar freezing level challenges. A cold front will bring snow on Wednesday with another rain event possible on Thursday/Friday.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25-.5
“Of additional water by 4am= >.25
“Of additional water by 12pm=.25-.5
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = 1-1.25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 6-8” below 4500’, +8-12” on the ridge top.
Trend and Timing:
Wet heavy snow is expected through the night. Snow changing to rain is expected after 7am tomorrow morning. Heavy rain with mixed with snow will continue for the first half of the week.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 28 High: 36
Freezing level: 3500’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will gradually increase from 3500’ to 5000’ through the next 24hrs.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE gusty
Trend and Timing:
East flow at the surface will continue through the night. Southerly flow aloft will strengthen with the approach and passing of the front.
November 17, 2012
11/17/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: The first of three progressively stronger storms entered the mountains last night. Light snow will continue today with a brief dry spell tonight. The following stronger front hits tomorrow with heavy snow and rain likely. The snow line will vary between 4000” and 5500’ through all three storms.
Long-term: The third system arrives sometime on Tuesday with more rain and or heavy snow. More storms with similar freezing level issues will affect the PNW for the long holiday weekend.
Snow totals likely below 4500’ (below the top of Hogsback)
By 4pm Sunday = 1-3”
By 4am Monday = 4-6”
By 4pm Monday = 2-4”
Totals 7-13”
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .10
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= >.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 1-3
Trend and Timing:
It may be possible to get a few more inches of snow before the day ends. Light snow showers with little accumulation will continue through the night. The next front hits tomorrow afternoon with heavy snow changing to rain through the night.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 34
Freezing level: +- 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures have risen to near freezing this morning. Freezing levels will hover near Pass level through the night. Freezing levels will rise to near 5000' tomorrow night.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E shifting WSW
Ridge Top: 5 -10 E shifting WSW and strengthening.
Trend and Timing:
The strong SW winds currently hitting the coast will overtake the east flow later this afternoon. Easterly winds will re-establish tomorrow before the next front hits. Gusty SW winds can be expected along the ridge tops tonight. Even though the coast is getting clobbered by high winds, the Pass should be sheltered from any significant winds.
November 16, 2012
11/16/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: A series of highly complex and wet weather system will approach the PNW today and continue through most of next week. The show will begin today with bands of snow showers separated by short dry periods lasting through the weekend. Snow totals by noon Sunday are currently calculating out to be 6-10”.
Long-term: The main event will occur late Sunday night as a strong warm front approaches the PNW from the southwest. Freezing levels continue to be a crucial question throughout the weather forecasting community. As of now, the freezing levels appear to be +- 4500’ through early Monday morning. Models then show the freezing levels rising to 5000’ on Monday and staying there through Wednesday. At this point, rain appears likely below 5000’ on Monday and Tuesday.
By the numbers: At present, precipitation total starting at 4am today and ending Wednesday at 4am:
Water equivalent (if all rain) = 2.75”
Snow totals above Pass level (if all snow) = 14”-18”
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25
“Of additional water by 4am=>.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .25-.5
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow showers will develop this afternoon and continue through most of the night. There will be brief dry spell tomorrow with more snow tomorrow night.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 26 High: 30
Freezing level: 3500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will remain just below freezing for the next 24hrs. Surface temperature will inch up to the low 30’s tomorrow.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base:0-5 E
Ridge Top:0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
East winds will continue to flow through the pass until tomorrow afternoon. SW flow will develop and strengthen tomorrow afternoon.
November 15, 2012
11/15/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: The radar shows just a few left over showers west of the mountains as high pressure moves over the region. Hopefully the sun will make an appearance today as it tries to burn off these low clouds hanging on the crest.
Long-term: Historically, the last two weeks of November are the wettest of the year. That tradition will continue. A series of wet weather system will clobber the PNW starting on Saturday and lasting through all of next week. Snow or rain? That is the question of the day. Models have the freezing levels fluctuating between 4000’ and 5000’ throughout this entire series of storms.
Weekend Storm details: The first wave of precipitation is expected to hit the mountains on Saturday. Snow should fall above 4000’ with totals on Saturday being around +-6”. There will be a dry period Saturday night and most of Sunday with the next front arriving Sunday night. Current models show the freezing levels rising to 5000’ on Monday with moderate to heavy rain likely. More frontal systems with general cooling are expected through the Thanksgiving weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=0
“Of additional water by 4am=0
“Of additional water by 12pm=0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = 0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow =0
Trend and Timing:
No precipitation expected for the next 24 hrs. Light Snow showers will begin tomorrow afternoon.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 3500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperature in the low 20’s will be possible under clear skies tonight. Freezing level will rise tomorrow to 4000’ by tomorrow night.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-5 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
Light east flow will continue through tonight. Winds will shift SWS tomorrow. High winds will be possible throughout this next storm cycle.
November 14, 2012
11/14/2012 Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: Today and tomorrow will be mainly dry with slightly cooler temperatures.
Long-term: As advertised, an active weather pattern will begin this weekend with several systems poised to hit the PNW throughout next week. The freezing levels will, once again, be on the cusp of whether we receive rain, snow or both.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=>.10
“Of additional water by 4am=0
“Of additional water by 12pm=0
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = Lt .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = trace
Trend and Timing:
Rising atmospheric pressure will bring and end to the showers today. Dry conditions with sun breaks will continue through Friday.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will drop a little due to some clearing tonight. Freezing levels should remain below Pass level through tomorrow.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 W shifting E
Ridge Top: 0-10 W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will develop tonight and remain intact until weekend’s front passes through.
November 13, 2012
11/13/2012 Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: More precipitation with 4500’ freezing levels will move through the mountains tonight. With some luck, it will be good base building wet snow and not straight rain. Weak high pressure will produce dry and partly sunny weather tomorrow and Thursdays.
Long-term: The PNW should begin to feel the effects of another system tracking in from the northwest on Friday with moderate to heavy snow and rain likely. Long range models are still all over the board on specifics details. Stay tuned as details such as freezing levels, precipitation amounts and timing advance during the next few days. The overall long-range pattern is looking promising as more systems begin to develop next week.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=>.25
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm=>.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .25+
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 1-4
Trend and Timing:
These passing snow/rain showers will continue today. The precipitation will become more consistent tonight with a variety of rain and snow. Tomorrow will be mostly dry.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain constant around 4500’.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 ESE
Ridge Top: 0-5 W
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow aloft with continue through tomorrow.
Long-term: The PNW should begin to feel the effects of another system tracking in from the northwest on Friday with moderate to heavy snow and rain likely. Long range models are still all over the board on specifics details. Stay tuned as details such as freezing levels, precipitation amounts and timing advance during the next few days. The overall long-range pattern is looking promising as more systems begin to develop next week.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight=>.25
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm=>.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .25+
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 1-4
Trend and Timing:
These passing snow/rain showers will continue today. The precipitation will become more consistent tonight with a variety of rain and snow. Tomorrow will be mostly dry.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain constant around 4500’.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 ESE
Ridge Top: 0-5 W
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow aloft with continue through tomorrow.
November 12, 2012
11/12/2012 Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion:
The Stevens Pass telemetry shows 13" of new snow over night, a nice start. The final band of moisture will move east of the mountains today with just light showers and warmer temperatures left over.
Long-term:
Another round of rain and or snow is expected tomorrow night with hopefully a few more inches of snow added to the mix. The freezing level will hover at or slightly above the base area. Hopefully the upper mountain will continue to receive snow. This pattern of light passing showers with warm, although seasonally average, temperatures will continue for the rest of the week.
Longer Range Outlook:
The low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska will continues to develop. The current models have the leading edge of the storm entering the PNW sometime early Saturday morning. This is a large system that has a probability of bringing a significant amount of precipitation to the region. Will it be rain or snow and just how much? It is too far out to have much confidence in the models, so, these questions will be answered as we get closer to the weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .10
“Of additional water by 4am= >.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= >.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = >.25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 1-2
Trend and Timing:
Light snow and or rain showers will taper off today with sun breaks possible. Light precipitation will continue tomorrow morning with the next front moving through sometime late afternoon.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 3500’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Warm air from the west will override the cooler air trapped on the east slopes today. Freezing levels are expected to rise to 4500 or 5000’.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W
Trend and Timing:
WSW flow will begin today and continue through the middle of the week.
November 11, 2012
11/11/2012 Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: An approaching warm front will push another system into the Cascade Mountains tonight. The freezing levels will be the determining factor on how much snow and or rain we will receive. Hopefully the bulk of the precipitation, at least on the upper mountain, will be snow.
Long-term: Periods of snow, mixed rain and snow will continue for the first part of the week. The second half of the week appears to dry and fairly inactive. The next storm for potential snow will enter the scene sometime next weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25-.5
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .75
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 8-10”
Trend and Timing:
Snow should begin falling this afternoon. With the aid of the cold air from the east, snow should continue through most of the night. There will be a chance of some freezing rain turning to rain sometime early tomorrow morning as the warm air arrives. The precipitation will shift to intermittent showers tomorrow.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 26 High: 34
Freezing level: 2000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise tonight to around 4500’. Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ through Wednesday.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue through most of the night. Winds should shift SW then W tomorrow.
Long-term: Periods of snow, mixed rain and snow will continue for the first part of the week. The second half of the week appears to dry and fairly inactive. The next storm for potential snow will enter the scene sometime next weekend.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .25-.5
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Water = .75
24hr (12pm-12pm) Inches of Snow = 8-10”
Trend and Timing:
Snow should begin falling this afternoon. With the aid of the cold air from the east, snow should continue through most of the night. There will be a chance of some freezing rain turning to rain sometime early tomorrow morning as the warm air arrives. The precipitation will shift to intermittent showers tomorrow.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 26 High: 34
Freezing level: 2000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise tonight to around 4500’. Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ through Wednesday.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue through most of the night. Winds should shift SW then W tomorrow.
November 9, 2012
11/9/2012 Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: With the exception of a few snow showers lingering over the Cascade Crest, today and tomorrow will be mostly dry and cold.
Long-term: A warm front enters the picture on Sunday bringing another round of precipitation and rising freezing levels. This system could produce a whole range of precipitation types from snow, to mixed rain and snow, to freezing rain.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= .10
“Of additional water by 4am= >.10
“Of additional water by 12pm=>.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) total “of water = >.25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
Snow showers will continue to be a possibility for the next 24 hrs.
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today:
Low: 16 High: 26
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will continue to fall as the cool air mass settles over the region today.
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
Cool easterly air will continue to flow through the pass until Sunday’s warm front passes through.
November 8, 2012
11/8/2012 Mountain Weather Forecast
24hr Short-term Discussion:
A cool, unstable air mass dropping down from Canada will bring light snow showers and dropping freezing levels to the Cascade Mountains tonight and tomorrow.
2-4 Day Long-term Outlook:
Other than an isolated snow shower or two, Friday and Saturday will be mostly dry under weak high pressure. The next frontal system for a possible snow producer will enter the PNW sometime late Sunday or early Monday morning.
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
“Water by midnight= 0
“Of additional water by 4am= >.10
“Of additional water by 12pm= .10
24hr (12pm-12pm) total “of water =>.25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
Light passing snow showers will continue for the next few days. It may be possible to squeeze a few inches out of these snow showers, but, they will have minor moisture content.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 38
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will continue to fall through the next 12-36hrs as cold air fills in the eastern basin.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
Base: 0-5 ENE
Ridge Top: 0-10 NE
Trend and Timing:
Light NE flow will continue to move through the pass throughout the rest of the week.
November 7, 2012
11/7/2012 Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion: Cooling temperatures with tapering mountain snow showers will be on the weather menu for today.
Long-term: The rest of the week will be mainly dry with light snow showers passing through from time to time. The first cold snap of the year is likely to occur this weekend as cold air streams in from the north east. Lows in the mid teens can be expected east of the mountains. The next chance of any measurable precipitation will be early next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Accumulative Precipitation Totals:
Inches of water by midnight= Lt .10
Inches of additional water by 4am= 0
Inches of additional water by 12pm=0
24hr (12pm-12pm) total “of water = >.10
24hr (12pm-12pm) Snow Total= 0-2”
Trend and Timing:
Once the Puget Sound Convergence Zone weakens and lifts north later today, the snow will end. Tomorrow will be mainly dry with sun breaks and light passing snow showers likely.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 32 High: 22
Freezing level: 3500’ dropping to 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will continue to fall for the next several days.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
Base: 0-5 W shifting NE
Ridge Top: 5-10 W shifting ENE
Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift north easterly through the night. Easterly flow will remain intact through the weekend.
November 6, 2012
11/6/2012 Mountain Weather Forecast
General Discussion:
A cold front will move through the region today bringing rain to Stevens Pass. The rain will change to showers and turn to snow through the night with no significant snow accumulation expected. Dry and cold weather is expected for the remainder of the week.
Long-term:
The second half of the week should be mostly dry and cold. There is a potential snow producer system worth watching for the weekend. Stay tuned for that.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Accumulative Precipitation Totals:
“Water by midnight= .10
“Of additional water by 4am= .10
“Of additional water by 12pm=.5
24hr (12pm-12pm) total “of water = .25
24hr (12pm-12pm) Snow Total= trace
Trend and Timing:
The rain will arrive sometime afternoon today and quickly turn to intermittent showers once the front passes east of the mountains. Light snow showers will fall through the night with a drying trend beginning tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 40
Freezing level: 5000’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
A cooling trend will begin tonight with the lowest temperatures of the season possible by the end of the week. The ground should get a good freezing by the week’s end.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
Base: 5-10 WSW
Ridge Top: 10-15 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
Light east flow this morning will shift WSW later today. Easterlies will return on Thursday.
November 5, 2012
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Warm southerly air under weak high pressure has made for an fantastic day here at Stevens Pass. Changes will begin tomorrow as a cold front drops in from the northwest. Freezing levels will drop tomorrow with rain changing to snow through the night. The rest of the week will be uneventful with light snow showers and sun breaks.
The Extended Forecast:
Saturday, at the moment, appears to be dry and cold with another weather system bringing a chance of snow on Sunday/Monday.
30-90 Day Climate Forecast
30 Day Climate Forecast
Above are climate prediction graphics for the probability of temperature and precipitation for the month of November 2012. The one on the right is temperature and one on the left is for precipitation.
The 30 Day Climate Forecast
Stevens Pass should expect average temperature and average precipitation for the month of November. If the averages hold true, Stevens Pass should experience a typical November with snow not likely to accumulate until after Thanksgiving.
90 day (Nov 2012 – Jan 2013)
The 90 Day Climate Forecast
The PNW should expect average temperatures with below average precipitation through the end of January.
El Nino Watch:
EL Nino/La Nina is currently in a neutral state trending towards a weak El Nino. However, the trend toward El Nino slowed during the month of October which supports the PNW long rang prediction of a normal start to winter in both precipitation and temperature. The most recent models are now split on whether El Nino conditions will emerge at all this winter. This also supports the long range forecast for the PNW to have a near normal winter.
Normal is good.
JM
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
