November 18, 2013

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


 
Time and Day: 1000 Monday
 
The Snapshot: Moderate to heavy rain and snow will continue through tomorrow morning.  A drying trend begins tomorrow afternoon and is expected to continue for the rest of the week. 

The Science: A warm front will push another round of moisture into the mountains today.  SW flow aloft will keep freezing levels above 4000’ until tomorrow.  High pressure building off of the PNW coast will allow cooler NW air to sink in from the north and reduce surface temperatures into the teens by the middle of the week.  Cold, dry and clear conditions will likely prevail through Friday.   

4-7day Long Range: High pressure building over the region during the week will provide clear, cool and dry weather through Saturday.  Longer range outlooks have another system arriving late into the weekend or perhaps on Monday.  

 
 
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
 
Water by 4am = 1” Snow equivalent = 1-3 base  3-8+ upper mountain.
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = 1 -1.25
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 2-4” 
 
Trends and Timing:
 
The snow line will remain around mid mountain with rain likely in the base area through noon tomorrow.   The upper ridge may be a good foot of snow if the temperatures cooperate. 
 
 
 
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today: 
                                     
Low: 24    High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’      5000’         2500’
 
Trend and Timing:   
 
Freezing levels are expected to peak around 5000’ early tomorrow morning.  Cooler NW flow will drop freezing levels below 2500’ tomorrow afternoon. 
 
 
 
24hr Winds (mph)
 
Base: 0-5 WSW
Ridge Top: 5-14 SW shifting W
 
Trend and Timing:
 
SW flow will slowly shift W then NW through the next 24hrs.  Watch for gusty ridge top winds with the passing of the fronts.   Cool northerly flow will develop on Wednesday.  
 

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0800 Start Tues Jan 20th, no ABS