December 11, 2013

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0930 Wednesday


The Snapshot: Mostly dry today with perhaps a glimpse of the sun from time to time.  Snow arrives tomorrow with freezing levels at or slightly above 4000’.
 

The Science:  The high pressure ridge is making its way east of the mountains this morning, hence the partial clearing.  The long awaited frontal system will drop in from the Gulf of Alaska tomorrow with snow reaching the mountains around mid day.  Warmer SW flow aloft will push freezing levels above 4000’ tomorrow night into early Friday morning.  Light snow and or rain showers will linger in the mountains on Friday.


4-7day Long Range:  Another warm/cold frontal series is expected to reach the mountains late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  Light mixed rain and snow changing to snow is currently the assumption on Sunday. 

 

 
Precipitation:
 
Water by 4am = 0 Snow equivalent = 0
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = >.25 
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 1-3
 
Trends and Timing:
 
Today and tonight will be mostly dry with snow starting to fall in the mountains around noon tomorrow.  Watch for some possible freezing rain on the roads tomorrow, especially on the east side.
 
Storm totals from noon tomorrow through noon Friday are +-.75” of water or 5-8” of snow.
 
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
                                     
Low: 24   High: 32
Freezing level: 3500’           4000’
 
Trend and Timing:
 
East flow will keep surface temperatures below freezing today.  Freezing levels will rise to around 4500’ by early Friday morning.
 
 
 
 
Winds (mph)
 
Base: 5-10 E shifting  SW
Ridge Top: 5-10 SE shifting SW
 
Trend and Timing:
 
East flow will briefly intensify today as gradients strengthen.  Winds will shift SW with the approach of the front tomorrow. Once the front moves through winds will shift more westerly.  Models are not showing excessive winds with this frontal system.

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