February 10, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1030 Monday


The Snapshot:  A good start to a great powder day,  5+” since 4am this morning and dumping.  Heavy snow with periodic rain events will be the game through the week, a foot or more of snow is expected overnight with several feet possible by week’s end.    

 NOTE: The GFS models are still not functioning so confidence and accuracy will be a bit low.


The Science:  The jet stream will direct a steady stream of moisture with several fronts imbedded in it throughout the week.  The first front hits this afternoon with high winds and heavy precipitation.  Freezing levels rise to 4000’ this afternoon, but there should be plenty of cold air to remain in snow through tomorrow.   Strong westerly convergence winds will enhance the orographic effect in the mountain so expect periods of heavy snow through the night.   The next front arrives tomorrow night.    


4-7day Long Range:  This pattern of waves of moisture accompanied with spike in temperature will continue through the week and likely into the holiday weekend.  Yes – Presidents day.    The mountains could receive several feet of new snow by the end of the storm cycle.


Precipitation:
Water by 4am = 1”  Snow = 12-15”
24hr total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = +- 1
24hr total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow =+-15”
 
Trend and Timing:
Heavy snow will continue through the night.  There will be a break in the precipitation tomorrow with the next front arriving tomorrow night.
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
Low: 18    High:  32
Freezing level: 1000’    4500’
 
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will quickly rise this afternoon to 4000’ and then gradually fall back to around 3500’ early tomorrow morning.  Temperatures will then rise again with the approach the next front tomorrow afternoon.
  
 
Winds (mph)
Base: 10-20 W
Ridge Top: 15-40 W
 
Trend and Timing:
Wind will shift westerly and strengthen with the passing of the front this afternoon.  A high wind advisory will be in effect tonight with winds tapering of tomorrow.

No comments:

0800 Start Thurs Jan 22nd, no ABS