February 11, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1000 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Today will be relatively quiet with little precipitation and consistent temperatures.   The next front hits later this afternoon with heavy snow changing to rain then back to snow tomorrow.   Hit repeat for Thursday/Friday. 


The Science:  A stronger warm front with a SW fetch of moisture will enter the region this afternoon.  This system is warmer, so expect some rain early tomorrow morning.  Another front arrives tomorrow for more mixed precipitation with yet another one on Friday.       


4-7day Long Range:  This weather pattern continues into the weekend.  The freezing levels will continue to bounce between 3500’ and 4500’ as these fronts come and go.  


Precipitation:
Water by 4am = .5-.75  Snow = 3-8
24hr total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = .75 -1
24hr total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = +- 5 on lower mountain with more (+-10) possible above 4500’.
 
Trend and Timing:
Light snow will begin to arrive this afternoon and intensify this evening.  Snow changes to rain around midnight and will continue through the early morning hours.   The precipitation will pick back up tomorrow afternoon with more mix snow and rain.   
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
Low: 30    High: 38
Freezing level: 4000’      5500’
 
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will rise to 5000’ around midnight tonight.  Surface temperatures will cool slightly through the day tomorrow.
 
 
Winds (mph)
Base: 0-10 ESE  shifting SW
Ridge Top: 5-15 WSW 
 
Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift SW with the passing of the front.  Gusty SW winds can be expected along the ridge tops.
 

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0800 Start Thurs Jan 22nd, no ABS