November 19, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0830 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Today will be mostly dry with thickening clouds.  Light snow with a chance of some freezing rain will greet us in the morning.   Light precipitation with sun breaks can be anticipated tomorrow; snow on Friday, Sat and Sun.   

The Science:  The cloud deck will thicken today as the high-pressure ridge continues to weaken and drift east.  An occluded front will move onshore early tomorrow morning producing some light snow and possibly rain.  A fast moving weak high-pressure ridge moves through tomorrow cutting off the moisture and producing some breaks in the clouds.  
Things get interesting on Friday as the first in a series of strong frontal system ushers in the first significant snow of the season.   Freezing levels will be around 4500’ to start, and then drop to 3500’ through the weekend.  Heavy snow, with a little rain thrown in for good base making, will start mid-day on Friday and continue through the weekend.     

4-7day Long Range: Light snow showers can be expected on Saturday with another storm with more snow on Sunday.  Storm totals from 4am tomorrow through 4am Monday are currently= +2” of water = 12-24” of snow.      

Longer range models show more systems on Monday and Tuesday with freezing levels reaching 5-7000’ by Wednesday of next week.

24hr precipitation ending at 4am tomorrow:

Water = .10  Snow = 1

Trend and Timing:
Expect light snow showers with some freezing rain first thing in the morning.  The precipitation will taper off by mid day.    


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 22   High: 32
Freezing level: 3500’ 4500’

Freezing Level Trends and Timing
Temperatures will continue to inch up as freezing levels gradually rise through the day tomorrow.  East flow will hold surface temperature near or below freezing through most of the night.  Temperatures will rise above freezing tomorrow afternoon.
 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 E  
Ridge Top: 5-10  

Trend and Timing:
 East flow will continue through mid morning tomorrow.  Winds shift south westerly tomorrow.  Strong westerly winds will accompany these approaching storms.



JM

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