November 20, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0630 Thursday

The Snapshot: Light snow this morning changing to mixed rain and then tapering off later today.  Heavy rain and snow is expected Friday with snow on Saturday.

The Science: A weak cold front will move through the mountains today. This will produce light snow and rain.  Warmer air advection from the SW will raise freezing levels to near 5000’.  A weak high-pressure ridge passing to the south of Stevens Pass will break up the moisture stream and allow more warm air to settle over the area.   Freezing levels will be on the cusp of allowing snow or rain until a stronger cold front moves through on Saturday and then again on Sunday.   The weekend storms have a better chance of measurable snow than tomorrow’s storm.  

4-7day Long Range: More storms are lining up to hit the PNW during the start of the week.  A strong high-pressure ridge off the coast of California will inch north during the start of next week.  Models have a hard time agreeing on what effect this will have to the PNW.  So I will leave that for the weekend forecasts.    

24hr precipitation ending at 4am tomorrow:

Water = .5  Snow = 1-2”

Trend and Timing:
Light snow will change to light rain this morning with continuing showers throughout the day. 


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 30   High: 35
Freezing level: 4000 – 5000’

Freezing Level Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will rise to near 5000’ today.  Cool east flow will help hold surface temperatures to near freezing.  

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 E shifting W    

Trend and Timing:
East flow will remain intact at pass level, while ridge top winds shift westerly.


 JM


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