November 6, 2014

This Month’s El Nino Installment


Neutral (ENSO) conditions over the Equatorial Pacific remain. If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event at best.

Models have reduced confidence that El Nino will fully materialize.  There is now only a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

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