December 4, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0600 Thursday:

The Snapshot:  Warming with light snow showers changing to rain, dry tomorrow with moderate rain over the weekend.   

The Science:  A wet and warmer pattern begins today as a series of systems track up from the southwest.   East flow will help keep the precipitation snow today but will eventually give way to the warmer flow aloft.  Freezing levels will slowly rise above 5000 by Saturday morning and then fluctuate between 4500’ and 5500’ through the middle of next week.

4-7day Long Range:  Warm southerly flow will continue to push bands of moisture through Stevens Pass every 12-24hrs through the middle of next week.  Unfortunately, freezing levels will remain above 4500’.  There will be periods of snow mid-slope and above, but most of it will be rain through at least Wednesday of next week.     


24hr precipitation ending at 4am tomorrow:

Water = .5  Snow = 0-3

Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will change to mixed rain and snow tonight.  Tomorrow will be mostly dry with the next round of rain on Saturday.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 23   High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’   4500’

Freezing Level Trends and Timing
Freezing levels are on the rise this morning and should peak between 4500’ and 5000’ by tonight.  Ease flow will help keep surface temperatures at or slightly above 32f for most of the day.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base:  0-10 E
Ridge Top:  5-10  SE  

Trend and Timing:
Surface flow should remain easterly while winds aloft (5000’) shift southerly.

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0800 Start Thurs Jan 22nd, no ABS