MOUNJTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 10:00 Saturday

The Snapshot:   Got Rain?   Heavy rain continues today. Mixed rain and snow will be possible around 4500’ Sunday with dry and cooler conditions developing next week.

The Science:  This impressive storm has dropped 4” of rain on Stevens Pass thus far.  Another front with a southwest fetch of moisture will continue to drown the Cascade Mountains through tonight.  An addition 3” of water is possible today – flood warnings are in effect.

Things begin to shift tonight as a cold front approaches the region.  There are signs that the cold front will begin to occlude.  If this occurs warm air will fill in behind the front and the freezing levels will not drop as low as hoped.

The cold/occluded front is expected to pass east of the mountains Sunday morning dropping freezing levels to 5000’ or possibly 4500’.  Expect mixed rain and snow in the base are of Stevens Pass through most of tomorrow.  There is still a winter storm watch in effect for the mountain passes for tomorrow.   Snow dances can commence.    

Long Range:  Remnant mixed rain and snow showers will linger into Monday with dry and cooler weather developing Tuesday-Thursday.  Long range models are starting to develop another frontal system late next week with the rain vs. snow game starting again.   

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = +2   Snow = 0  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =  +75  Snow =  2-5 Trend and Timing: Heavy rain will continue for most of the day.   There will be a slight break after sunset tonight with mixed rain and snow beginning around midnight tonight and continuing through most of tomorrow.  Rain/snow line will be around 4500’.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 34    High: 50 Freezing level: 7000’ dropping 4500.' Trends and Timing: Surface temperatures will top out near 500f  today.  Temperatures begin to fall to near freezing early tomorrow morning.   Freezing levels are not expected to drop below 4000’ until late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 5-15 WSW  gusty Ridge Top: 10-20 WSW    Trend and Timing: Strong gusty winds will continue through tomorrow afternoon.

JM