November 1, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0800  Sunday

The Snapshot:  Mixed rain and snow tapers off tonight with a few left over snow showers hanging around tomorrow.   Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and cool.   Another storm approaches toward the end of the week.  

The Science:  What a storm.  Water volumes could exceed +9” by midnight tonight.  The cold front moved east of the mountains early this morning and is now heading into the intermountain west.  The atmosphere is still holding plenty of moisture with rain and snow expected to continue through most of the day.  Cold air aloft, coupled with warm SW flow at the surface, will hold freezing levels around 4700’ today.   

A high-pressure system strengthening out in the western waters will bring a few days of relief to Stevens Pass beginning tomorrow.  Cooler northerly flow will allow freezing levels to drop below 4000’ on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Long Range:  Another round of rain arrives Thursday and Friday with a chance of snow over the weekend.  November is living up to its history of being the wettest month of the year. 


Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water =  .5- .75  Snow = 4-6” base  6-10” upper mountain

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = <.25”   Snow =  trace

Trend and Timing:
Mixed rain and snow will begin to diminish this evening.  Remnant showers will linger through tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 32   High: 38
Freezing level: +-5000.'

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will bump up to 5000’ today and then begin to fall tomorrow.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 WSW
Ridge Top:  5-15 WSW  gust to 40mph possible

Trend and Timing:
Winds will continue to be strong through the day.  Winds shift NW tomorrow.



JM

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