October 29, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0800 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Rain diminishes to scattered showers today, high winds and heavy rain begins tomorrow and continues through Sunday.  There may be a few inches of snow left on the ground for the Monday commute.  Dry and cold next week.

The Science:   The games begin tomorrow morning when the first of several closely packed fronts plow into the Cascade Mountains.  The winds will strengthen today as the pressure drops and gradients tighten. The first warm front is scheduled to arrive early tomorrow morning with strong westerly flow and heavy rain. Another front from the SW joins the action Saturday evening intensifying the rain even further. Then on Sunday a cold front swings through from the NW dropping freezing levels to +-4000’ and possibly leaving a few inches of snow by early Monday morning.  

Long Range:   Monday – Thursday of next week will be dry and mostly clear under cool northerly flow.  Low temperatures could dip into the low to middle 20’early next week.  Good snowmaking weather. 

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = >.25”   Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 1-2”   Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Scattered showers today with the main show arriving early tomorrow morning.

Storm totals calculate out to be +5” of rain through Sunday.   With some luck and good timing with the arrival of Sunday’s cold front, there could be 2-4” of snow in the base area on Monday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 38    High: 42
Freezing level: 6000’ rising

Trends and Timing:
The temperature will rise with freezing levels topping 8000’ tomorrow afternoon.  Temperatures will remain well above freezing until Sunday afternoon/evening.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W

Trend and Timing:
Westerly winds begin to strengthen today.  20-40mph sustained wind speeds will be possible tomorrow through early Saturday morning.



JM

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