November 16, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Monday

The Snapshot:  Snow this afternoon changing to rain and wind tonight and then back to snow tomorrow night.   There is a very high wind advisory for tomorrow with 40-60mph winds possible at Stevens Pass. 

The Science:  There is +-6” (unofficial) of fresh snow on the ground this morning thanks to the Puget Sound Convergence Zone holding in there through the night. 

The next front, just now making land fall along the NW coast, will push a hefty band of moisture and strong winds inland today.  The moisture will initially hit the cold air mass draped over the mountains with moderate to heavy snow for the Pass.  Warm air advection will eventually scour out the cold air turning the snow to rain late tonight.  Rain is expected through most of tomorrow with freezing levels around 6000’.   Another push of cold air descends in from the northwest tomorrow night shifting the rain to snow and briefly bringing an end to the precipitation Wednesday morning.

Long Range:  Another similar frontal system (snow, rain, snow) is preparing to impact the PNW late Wednesday/Thursday with potentially heavy snow.  An update will be posted later today with fresh data on those details.


Precipitation ending at 4 am:

Today’s 24hr Water = 1-2”   Snow = 6-12   

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +2”  Snow =  4-8

Trend and Timing:
The main front of snow is expected to reach the mountains this afternoon with 4-6hrs of heavy snow. Snow shifts to rain around midnight with heavy rain tomorrow. 


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 22   High: 40
Freezing level:  4000’ – 6000.'

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels jump to 6000’ tonight and then fall back down to near 3500’ tomorrow night.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W  
Ridge Top: 10-20 SSW  - gust 50+

Trend and Timing:
A very high wind event is expected to begin just after midnight tonight.  Models have 5000’ winds at +50kts for most of tomorrow.



JM

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