November 13, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0800 Friday

The Snapshot:  Lots-o-rain and wind today, AKA The Atmospheric River.  Rain is expected to change to snow early Sunday morning and then taper off. 
The good news, surfs up.    

The Science:  Almost an inch of rain has fallen since midnight last night with an additional 2-3” likely through early Sunday morning.  A weak cold front will move through early tomorrow morning briefly dropping freezing levels +-4500’.   A surface low traking along the Oregon/Washington border will bump the temperatures back up tomorrow as it pulls warm in from the south. Therefore, expect a few hours of mixed snow changing back to rain tomorrow. A colder and dryer air mass arrives on Sunday leaving a few inches of snow on the ground before it ends.  Sunday night will be mostly dry with a chance of a few light snow showers.

Long Range: Hit repeats on Monday afternoon - a few inches of snow Monday night changing to rain on Tuesday.   Models are trending with higher freezing levels (+6000’) for Monday night and Tuesday – bummer.    Another update will be posted this afternoon. 

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water =  2.5  Snow = 1-3 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .75-1  Snow = 1-3

Trend and Timing:
Heavy rain today, mixed snow and rain tomorrow morning with mostly rain during the day tomorrow.  Rain turns to snow after 4 am Sunday morning and then tapers off through the day.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 30  High: 42
Freezing level: 7000’  4500.'

Trends and Timing:
Mild temperatures today and tomorrow.  A brief drop in freezing levels occurs between 2 am and 10 am tomorrow.  Surface temperatures bump back up to near 400f  tomorrow afternoon.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-15 WSW
Ridge Top: 10-20 WSW  

Trend and Timing:
The winds will be strong today with ridge top gust +40mph.  Winds diminish tonight and shift easterly tomorrow.



JM

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