Remember El Nino ?

Nice snow pack discussion  Dan (below)

The monthly El Nino report has arrived:

Statistically, the PNW could have another good winter next year.   

A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall. 

Most models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer 2016.  Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall.  While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains.  A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.

El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months.  The seasonal outlooks for February – April indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier.  Above-average temperatures are favored in the North and West, and below-average temperatures are favored in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast.

For full report go to:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

jM