PNW 2-WEEK CLIMATE PREDICTION

PNW Climate Predictions:

Is the PNW heading into a classic wet fall weather pattern?

Attached is a link to the climate prediction discussion:   Keep in mind that climate predictions models use different mathematical equations and formulas than weather forecasting models.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

The Gist:  

Valid Friday, October 07, 2016 to Tuesday, October 18, 2016

• Heavy rain across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Fri, Oct 7.
• Heavy rain across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Wed-Sat, Oct 12-Oct 15.

As Florida and the southeast coast braces for hurricane Mathew, the PNW will have its share of wet weather as well.  Remnants of Typhoon Chaba (East China / South Korea) is predicted to track northeastward and then slide down the Alaska Coast over the next week. Couple this with strong storms riding on an SW jet stream,  well, this means wet weather for the entire NW coastal community.  

Climate Forecast:

Surface low pressure is predicted to develop over the eastern Pacific, extending from the northwestern portion of the region by October 7, bringing heavy rain to parts of the Pacific Northwest. Some areas may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period. 

For Wednesday October 12 - Tuesday October 18: The Pacific is expected to remain active regarding tropical storm activity through the next two weeks. Many of the remnant low-pressure systems associated with these cyclones are anticipated to move eastward toward the northwestern portion of the CONUS, enhancing available moisture in the area. Anticipated strong onshore flow favors episodes of heavy rain across parts of the Pacific Northwest from October 12 to 15. Heavy precipitation over a few days may lead to localized flood conditions. 

Enjoy

jM