MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600 Monday

The Snapshot:  Heavy snow and windy this morning.  Snow diminishes this afternoon with more heavy snow tomorrow with a potentially short period of rain early tomorrow morning.  Mostly snow during operation hours tomorrow, dry on Wednesday,  more snow toward the end of the week.

The Science:  Heavy snow has begun to fall at Stevens with temperatures in the upper 20’s and gusty winds out the west.  Good convergence orographics should continue for the next 4-6 hrs with an additional +- 6” of snow possible before it ends later this afternoon.

 A cold front will swing through the region later today which will shift the snow to light showers and drop the temps a few degrees.  A short-lived high pressure ridge developing behind the front will cause the afternoon to be relatively dry with even some clearing at times.

Tomorrow’s storm:   A strong warm front will track up from the south tonight bringing another dose of heavy precipitation. Freezing levels could spike near 5000’ early tomorrow morning with a short period of heavy rain possible.  A cold front will quickly follow with westerly flow providing another period of moderate to heavy convergence zone snow through the day tomorrow. 

The Long Range:  Wednesday will be an interim day with more snow heading our way on Thursday and Friday.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = +- 1 Snow = 10-14 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .75  snow = 6-8 Trend and Timing: Snow diminished later today and then ramps back up tonight.   There will be a chance of a short shot of rain or mixed rain and snow early tomorrow morning with precipitation turning to all snow through the day.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:                                        Low:  27   High: 36 Freezing level: 3500’-5000’ Trend and Timing:    Surface temperatures will inch toward 300 today and then fall in the wake of the cold front this afternoon.   Freezing levels then spike up to near 5000’

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base:  5-15 W  gusty Ridge Top: 10 -20 W  Gusty Trend and Timing: Strong westerly winds will be a factor with these next two storms.  Watch for ridgetop with gusts +-40mph at times.  The winds will diminish this afternoon and strengthen again tomorrow morning.

jM