October 17, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0900 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  A stormy week ahead. Wind and rain with some mixed snow today, dry tonight with another strong storm moving in tomorrow.
 
The Long Range:  Wednesday and Thursday will be very wet and windy with high freezing levels.  Cooler air arrives on Friday with snow possible heading into the weekend. 

The Science: It is 50 degrees this morning with the barometer at 1012mb and trending down. The leading edge of the approaching cold front is entering the northwest edge of the Olympic Peninsula.  The batch of moisture, out ahead of the front, will reach Stevens Pass shortly, with the main event happening around noon today.  The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is expected to develop, which will enhance the orographic effect for a few hours. Freezing levels are expected to drop to 5000’ in the wake of the cold front tonight with a short period of mixed snow possible.

The moisture will begin to taper off around sunset tonight as the pressure begins to rise and cooler air moves in.  A strong warm front hits tomorrow with rising temperatures, more wind, and heavy precipitation.

The Pacific Jet Stream keeps its focus on the PNW for the next 3-5 days with multiple storms poised to hit through the weekend.   

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 am:
Today 24hr water:.5-.75  snow:
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: 1-1.25  snow: 0

Trend and Timing:
Water volumes have been downgraded by a .25” or so.  The precipitation diminishes to showers late this afternoon with tonight being mostly dry.  The next push of moisture arrives after 7 am tomorrow.  


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 34    High: 50
Freezing level: 7000’ – 4500’ – 7000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will briefly drop to 4500’ late this afternoon. Temperatures bounce back up tomorrow with freezing levels peaking at 7000’.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am:
Base: 5-15 WSW
Ridge Top: 10-30 W  

Trend and Timing:
A high wind watch will be in effect today with 40+mph ridge top winds likely.  These are frontal winds so they should diminish as the front moves east of the mountains.



jM

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