October 18, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0900 Wednesday

The Snapshot: Heavy rain begins today and continues through tomorrow night.

The Long Range:  Mixed snow and rain showers with some clear periods are expected on Friday with another strong warm frontal system developing over the weekend.  

The Science:  It is currently 32 degrees, 93% humidity with the barometer at 1012mb and trending down.  A triple point frontal system (warm, cold, occluded) will lift up from southwest today bringing with it heavy rain and rising temperatures.   A long stretch of moisture is being entrained with this system so expect a ton of moisture for the next few days.   The following cold front will begin to filter in the cooler air late tomorrow night. Freezing levels could drop to 4000’ or a bit lower by Friday night.   There could be a bit of snow accumulation on the ground Saturday morning but it is not likely to stick around.

Long range models have another similar wet, warm weather event expected to occur over the weekend.  Things begin to dry out early next week as the high pressure developing to the south should begin to nudge the moisture north.    


24hr Precipitation ending at 4 am:
Today 24hr water: 1-1.25” snow: 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr water:  1” snow: 1-3”

Trend and Timing:
Rain will intensify today with the heaviest period after sunset tonight. The precipitation slowly diminished to light showers on Friday.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 32    High: 45
Freezing level: 4500’ – 7000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will peak at or above 7000’ tonight and then begin to slowly drop through the day tomorrow.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am:
Base: 5-15 SW
Ridge Top: 5-20 SSW

Trend and Timing:
Gust SW winds can be expected for the next 24-36hrs.



jM

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