MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0800 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Increasing snow today, light snow showers with sun breaks tomorrow.   A few inches of snow is expected on Thursday with more active weather expected for the weekend.   

The Science

Current Observations:

 2” of snow fell last night.  The temperature is 30 degrees, the RH is 90% and the barometer is 1014mb and falling and the winds have shifted easterly.  The radar has a band of moderate to heavy moisture just about to enter the mountains.

Forecast:

The cold front, still just offshore, is expected to move east of the mountains sometime this afternoon.  Freezing levels should hold around 4000’ through the day with the exception of a short jump just prior to the arrival of the front. 

Temperatures will fall, the winds will shift westerly and the precipitation will increase this afternoon/evening.  There could be a nice period of heavy snow as good westerly WNW flow sets up.  The snow will shift to showers overnight with a few lingering snow showers and sun breaks expected through the day tomorrow.

The Long Range:  The next frontal system arrives late on Thursday with a few inches of snow expected.  Friday will be interim day between storms with another system expected over the weekend.  The models are all over the board for the weekend's weather, so we will have to wait as they work out their differences.       

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am: Today 24hr water: 1  snow: 8-12 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25   snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Moderate snow is expected today.  A convergence zone formation will likely provide a few hours of heavy precipitation between 2 pm and 10 pm.   Snow tapers off during the early morning hours.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am:  Low: 28    High:34 Freezing level: +-4000’ Trend and Timing:    Surface temperatures will bump up a few notches this morning and then fall in the wake of the front later today.  Freezing levels will be consistently around 4000’ through tomorrow and likely Thursday as well.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am: Base: 0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 0-10 E shifting W Trend and Timing: Winds will shift westerly later today and strengthen for a few hours tonight.

jM