MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0730 Monday

The Snapshot:  Windy with light snow showers and some clear periods today. Moderate to heavy snow is expected tomorrow.  Wednesday will be an interim day with more systems arriving on Thursday and then again over the weekend.    

The Science

Current Observations:  .57” of water with 3” of snow is reading on the telemetry stake.  The temperature is 29^0f ,  the RH is 87%, the barometer has bumped up a notch to 1010mb’s and ridge top winds are strong and out of the west.  Spotty snow showers are popping up on radar along the western slopes of the mountains.

Cool unstable NW air is beginning to flow with snow showers for mountains likely. However, some weak upper-level ridging could allow some clearing today and tonight.  

The next frontal system is timing out to hit the mountains early tomorrow morning.  This is a nice looking triple point storm with cool NW flow following the leading warm front.  East flow will be a key feature for keeping the precipitation snow for the start of this event.  A quick spike in freezing levels is expected with a short period of mixed rain possible, but it should be short-lived. Steady westerly flow with falling temperatures will fill in tomorrow afternoon for a possible convergence development and thus a period of moderate to heavy snow.   The snow diminished to showers heading into Wednesday morning.

    

The Long Range:  The next storm of interest arrives on Thursday.  This storm has a similar warm-cold dynamic with the potential to add to the snowpack. The good news is that the long range temperatures regime is beginning to fall to its seasonal average – so for the time being, the next few systems should be mostly snow.      

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am: Today 24hr water: lt. 25 snow: 0-2 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .75-1  snow: 5 -10 Trend and Timing: Light intermittent snow showers today.  Moderate snow begins after 4 am tomorrow.

24hr temperature ending at 4am:  Low:28     High:32 Freezing level: 3500’ - 4500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will sit around 4000’ through the night.  A quick spike of temperatures will accompany the front tomorrow with freezing levels falling back down to 3500’ late in the day.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am: Base: 5-10 W gusty  shifting E Ridge Top: 10-20 W Trend and Timing: Gusty winds this morning will diminish this afternoon and shift easterly overnight.

jM