November 5, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0700 Sunday

The Snapshot:  Cold with light snow today.  The snow tapers off tonight with tomorrow and Tuesday being mostly dry with some sun breaks.  It will be warmer with a chance of more snow starting on Wednesday.     

The Science

Current Observations:  It’s 22 degrees with 3” of fresh snow on the ground this morning.  The Rh = 92% with the barometer holding steady at 1005mb The winds are easterly at +-5mph. 

A cold front, tracking south along the offshore waters, coupled with cold air flowing in from the NE, has produced light snow and cold temperatures for the Central Cascades Mountains.  As the cold front continues its journey south, the snow will diminish but the cold air will settle in.  The bulk of the moisture seems to be concentrated along the east slopes which will likely see a few more inches of snow accumulation today. 

A ridge of high pressure will develop tonight which will bring partly clear and mostly dry weather to Stevens Pass tomorrow and Tuesday.   ENE flow will keep the cold air pumping into the eastern basin as well.    
  
The Long Range:  A warm front driven by SW flow will bring the next round of moisture and warmer temperatures to the mountains on Wednesday.  Strong east flow will likely keep the freezing levels at or below 4000’.   Therefore, snow will be likely for the second half of next week.  Models differ greatly on the storm (snow) totals; so stay tuned as those details come into alignment.        

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water: .25+ snow: 1-3
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: 0  snow: 0

Trend and Timing:
Light snow will begin to taper off this afternoon with tomorrow trending dry.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 16    High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ -500’

Trend and Timing:   
Surface temps will recover a bit today with tomorrow’s early morning lows in the teens.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am:
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 E

Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue through tomorrow.



jM

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