November 7, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0830 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Today and most of tomorrow will be dry with the clouds trying burn off.  Snow arrives tomorrow night.   

The Science

Current Observations: It is overcast this morning with Pass level temperatures in the lower 20’s and 16 degrees at Tye Mill.  The barometer is 1022mb and steady.  The RH is 89%  with light easterly breezes.

The Cascade Crest cloud deck is sitting at 4500’ and will try and burn off again today.  Warm air convection will begin to raise temperatures along the western slopes and slowly scourer out the cold air settled in the eastern basin.  East/west gradients will continue the fight to keep the east winds and thus, the cooler air, flowing through the Pass through at least Thursday night.

A low-pressure system with an embedded warm front will slowly make its way toward the PNW tomorrow.  The first band of moisture is timing out to enter the mountains tomorrow afternoon or early evening.  Freezing levels, with the aid of east flow, should be low enough to allow the moisture to be in the form of snow through most of Thursday, and possibly even Friday.  

Snow totals from 4 pm tomorrow through 4 pm on Thursday will be somewhere in the neighborhood of  3-6”.  Freezing levels begin to inch up near or above 4000’ Thursday night. Another band of moisture gets pushed in on Friday morning for a chance of more snow. 
  
The Long Range:  The low-pressure system is expected to stall just offshore which will continue to spin light bands of moisture into the mountains through the weekend.  There is not a ton of moisture associated with this system so precipitation totals through the weekend will be light.  

The long-range weather pattern continues to be active and wet but with the usual inconsistent details.      

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 am:
Today 24hr water: lt.10  snow: flurries
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25   snow:2-4

Trend and Timing:
Mostly dry today.  Light snow begins to fall tomorrow afternoon.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 20     High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’- 3500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will remain low through the night and begin to rise after sunrise tomorrow.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am:
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen and continue through most of tomorrow.


jM


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