Winter Climate Forecast: La Nina Continues.

  With the exception of warmer than normal temperatures, so far, this winter has been fairly consistent with historical La Nina winter weather.   This pattern should continue for the PNW into early spring.   Below is a summary of the climate prediction. If you want the full report go to:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: International Research Institute for Climate and Society        

11 January 2018

Synopsis: La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.

            La Niña continued during the past month, as indicated by the pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean … The atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with suppressed convection near and east of the International Date Line and enhanced convection to the north of Indonesia.  Also, the low-level trade winds continued to be stronger than average over the western and central Pacific.  Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña.

              

Nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. Based on the latest observations and forecast guidance, forecasters believe this weak-to-moderate La Niña is currently peaking and will eventually weaken into the spring.

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months. The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.