November 13, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: 0700 Tuesday

The Snapshot:   Dry today with sun breaks.  Rain and wind hit the mountains tonight.  

Current Observations:
Precipitation: 0
Pass temperature: 26
Winds: 5-15 E
Barometer: 1028mb’s steady 
Sky: Cloudy
Radar:  Dry conditions over the region with the approaching band of moisture still well offshore.

The Forecast:  The first band of moisture will enter the mountains tonight with freezing levels rising to +-7000’.   There will be a short break in the precipitation tomorrow night with another system arriving on Thursday.  Rain with mild temperatures will finish out the week.

Long Range:  Dry and clear weather will develop over the weekend and continue into early next week.  There are still no significant snow events showing up on the long term models.    
  
The Science:  The triple point frontal system approaching the coast has a warm southerly flow component to it.  Freezing levels will push into the 7000’ range tonight with mild temperatures remaining in place for most of the week.  With all triple points storms a cold front will follow; but the front will be weakened as it is overtaken by the warm air mass flowing in from the south.   

Wind:   Pressure gradients will strengthen as westerly flow aloft fills in tonight.  Watch for  +-5000’ wind gusts exceeding 40mph  at times tonight and tomorrow.  The wind will begin to diminish tomorrow night.  

The large high pressure system over the California/Oregon coastal waters will approach the PNW over the weekend.  This will create a blocking ridge of pressure and thus provide another prolonged period of dry and clear weather.  


Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .5  snow:0

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water:.25-.5   snow: 0

Trend and Timing:
Mostly dry today with rain hitting the  mountains  after 7pm tonight.


Temperature:
Low: 26    High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ -7000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise above 6000’ around noon today.

 
Winds
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 SSE
10-25 W

Trend and Timing:
East winds will shift to southerly then westerly over the next 24hrs.  Gusty ridge top winds can be expected.

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