MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Thursday, November 14, 2019, 0830am

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:                0

Temperature profile:             29 base,  29 ridge

Pass level winds:                    light, easterly

Barometer:                             1018mb’s and holding steady

Sky:                                    Patchy pass level fog with a broken stratus layer

Radar: Rain showers south of the I-90 corridor with mostly dry conditions to the north.

The Forecast:  Dry with warming temperatures today.  Moderate to heavy rain and high mountain snow can be expected tomorrow.   

Long Range:  Several storms are lined up to impact the PNW through the middle of next week.  There will be a break Saturday afternoon with another storm arriving on Sunday and then again on Tuesday.  Freezing levels do NOT appear to be in favor of snow below 5500’ through the weekend.

  

The Science:  The leading warm front of a triple point storm is tracking into BC this morning.  This will bring rising freezing levels to the PNW today and moisture to the Cascades Mountains tomorrow.   The trailing cold front is expected to swing through tomorrow with lowering freezing levels and temporarily diminish the precipitation.   A weak high pressure ridge will sneak in Saturday afternoon with another wet system arriving on Sunday/ Monday.  

Confidence:  Good in the short term, fair in the long range.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .10 snow: 0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water:  .75-1 snow: 2-4 upper ridge Trend and Timing: Rain begins around 4am tomorrow morning with moderate to heavy periods through the day.  Snow levels will bounce between 4500' and 5500'

Temperature: Low: 30   High: 40 Freezing level: 4500’ – 7000’ – 5000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will bump up this afternoon and begin to fall tomorrow afternoon.

Winds Base: 0-5 E  shifting W Ridge Top: 0-10 E shifting W Trend and Timing: Easterly flow will strengthen a bit this afternoon and then shift westerly tomorrow morning.  Gusty ridge top wind will be possible as the cold front approaches early tomorrow morning.