November 12, 2019

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Date and Time: Tuesday 112/2019  0730

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:     < .10 of light rain     
Temperature profile:              34base, 32 ridge
Pass level winds:                   light, westerly
Barometer:                             1015mbs and falling  
Sky:                                         Overcast
Radar:   Wide spread rain west of the crest with mixed rain and snow tapering off along the east slopes.


The Forecast:  Rain today tapering off this afternoon.   Partly cloudy tomorrow with very light passing rain showers possible.  

Long Range: Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly dry with the next round of moisture arriving early Friday morning.  See below for Friday’s synopsis.

The Science:  Moisture out ahead of a stationary front will slowly proceed east today with damp conditions expected for the mountains.  The front is slowly occluding so temperatures and freezing levels should remaining fairly stable with the passing of the front – if the front even makes to the crest.  Pockets of cooler air are settling in the valleys along the east slopes of the North Cascades; so expect some snow at the lower elevations. 

Friday:  A strong moist cold front will arrive Friday morning with moderate to heavy mixed rain and snow.  Warm SW flow will bring freezing levels back up on Saturday with another wet system possible on Sunday.  Long range models begin to diverge significantly beyond Sunday, but it is safe say that we are entering into an active weather pattern. 

Confidence:  Good.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: <.25 snow:  trace on upper ridge

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: <. 10  snow: 0

Trend and Timing:
Light rain at Pass level will taper off later this afternoon.   Mostly dry tomorrow with some light precipitation possible.


Temperature:
Low: 32   High: 40
Freezing level: +-5000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will hover around 5000’ through tomorrow.

 
Winds
Base: 0-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
Light to moderate westerly flow will continue through tomorrow.



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0800 Start Sat Jan 31st, no ABS