8:00am Start for Wednesday 1/11/2023 No ABS

 

jM’s 5 day Mountain Weather Forecast:

Synopsis:

Tomorrow (Wednesday) will be relatively quiet with sun breaks and temperatures in the upper 20s’ to lower 30”s.

A warm front, driven by strong southerly flow, will arrive early Thursday morning (+-4am) There is not a ton precipitation associated with this system so precipitation amounts will be relatively light.   +-1-2” SWE

The frontal system will leave a warm unstable air mass in its wake for Friday and Saturday.  Thus, light to moderate passing rain showers can be expected Friday and Saturday.  Damp!

Storm totals. 

4am – 4pm Thursday

·         .75-1: SWE,  Snow: 2-10”  models disagree on the timing of the switch over.  Today’s best guess, sometime between noon and 4pm Thursday afternoon.  

·         Freezing levels 5000’, snow levels 4000’. 

·         Winds 5-15 E switching to SSW

4pm Thursday -4am Friday

·         .75 SWE,  0” of snow

·         Freezing levels,  +7000’. 

·         Winds 5-10 S

Avalanche Concerns:

There will likely be a wet loose avalanche period sometime during the day on Thursday.  The recent 5 days of snow (10”) with an additional 5-10” of pre-rain snow will be vulnerable to small but widespread wet loose avalanches.   

Weekend Outlook:

Friday and Saturday will be soggy with intermittent rain showers. Temperatures in the upper 30’s and possibly 40f degrees as a high.  Freezing levels drop back down below pass levels sometime on Sunday with snow showers expected to continue into early next week.

More tomorrow with higher confidence on timing and intensities.

jM