April 2, 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE AT STEVENS PASS

Hello, 
I recently had the opportunity to participate in a Sustainable Seattle Forum on Snow Pack and the Impact of Climate Change.  There was an excellent collection of participants;  REI, K2, UW Agriculture Director, Seattle Power and Water,  UW Climatologist, State Energy, State Economic Principal, Sustainably Seattle Director, PUD’s and various sustainability consultants.  

The keynote Speaker was Dr, Amy Stover:  Assistant Dean, Applied Research Director for the College of the Environment, UW.   
She gave an extremely informative presentation on the latest research on climate change and how it will impact the Pacific NW.

Main Messages:

The question is no longer IF climate changes but how fast and how much.
 
When will the future no longer look like the past?  

Significant changes in global and local climate are expected.

Current work focusing on: Atmospheric rivers,  mountain access, combined impacts of flooding and sea level rise, successful adaptation, snowpack reduction, short snow season.

What does this mean for Stevens Pass?

All scenarios indicate less snow, more rain and a shorter snow season for the PNW.

The Research Science:  

The average length of the snow season at +-4500’  from 1950-2000 was +-145 days. 
 
The prediction for snow days by:      2020 = +- 130days
                                                       2030 = +- 120days
                                                       2040 = +- 100days

Wetter and drier conditions projected:
·       Modest increases in average annual precipitation
·       Seasonal patterns reinforced
·       Wetter fall, winter, and spring; drier summers likely
·       More frequent heavy rain events expected
·       There is no discernible long-term trend in annual precipitation amounts
Observed trends to date:
·       Average annual temperature increased +1.3f, 1885-2011
·       Frost-free season has lengthened +-35days, 1885-2011
·       Spring snowpack varies from year-to-year but declined 25% mid-20th century through 2006
·       Washington glaciers declined during the 20th century

·       Spring peak stream flows shifted earlier by up to 20days (snowmelt)? 

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