LAST SEASON FORECAST

  Have a great spring and summer adventuring everyone.  

I hear there is an epic winter is instore for next year.

JM  

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0730 Wednesday:

The Snapshot:  Light snow showers will be possible this morning with sun breaks this afternoon.  The rest of the week will have beautiful spring weather; great for putting the resort away for the season.  Strong work everyone.

The Science:  This morning’s radar has just a few remnant showers lingering along the west slopes of the Cascades, north of Seattle.  High-pressure lifting up from the southwest will begin to stabilize, clear and warm the atmosphere for the rest of the week.

Long Range: A weak system is expected to clip the northwest corner of the state on Friday producing some cloud cover over Stevens Pass.  High-pressure strengthens on the weekend for a prolonged dry period lasting well into next week.  Enjoy. 

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow = trace  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow = 0 Trend and Timing: Drying through the day.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 24  High: 34 Freezing level: +- 4500.' Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will stick around Pass level today and then begins it ascent tomorrow.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 NW Ridge Top: 0-10 NW   Trend and Timing: Light NW flow will continue today and tomorrow.

JM

MOUNTAINW WEATHER FORECAST

0700 Wednesday:

The Snapshot:   Snow will taper off today, drying and warming for the remainder of the week.

The Science:  Telemetry shows  3” of snow at the base and +-7” on the upper mountain.   As suspected, most of the energy was south of Stevens Pass.  Cool unstable NW flow will keep the threat of snow showers through the day.   Barometric pressure values begin to rise tonight for the start of a drying trend.     

Long Range: High-pressure building along the NW coast will begin a period of dry, warm, and clear weather starting tomorrow and lasting into early next week. 

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .25   Snow = 1-3  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow = 0 Trend and Timing: Snow showers will slowly taper off today.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 24   High:  32 Freezing level: 2500’   4000.' Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will stick around the 4000’ through early tomorrow morning.  A warming trend will then kick in with rising freezing levels well above 5000’ by the end of the week.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 NW Ridge Top:  5-15 NW Trend and Timing: Ridge top winds will be gusty this morning and begin to diminish this afternoon.

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0830 Monday:

The Snapshot:  Snow tonight, drying and warming for the remainder of the week.

The Science: Another cold front is in route with more snow for the Cascades. Light snow should begin to fall in a few hours and intensify this afternoon/evening.  Our friend, the convergence zone, will start out at Stevens and then shift south toward Snoqualmie Pass early tomorrow morning.  This system is not packing as much precipitation as the last storm, but hopefully Stevens will pick up enough new snow for some more powder turns tomorrow. 

  

Long Range:  It all comes to and end tomorrow afternoon as high pressure begins to build up from the southwest.  The rest of the week will trend clear and warm.  Freezing levels by the end of the week could peak above 10,000’ with daytime temperatures in the 60’s.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .5+   Snow = 4-7” Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25  Snow = 2-5”  Trend and Timing: Snow is expected to start late this afternoon and continue through the night.  Snow will slow taper off tomorrow as the convergence zone shift south towards Snoqualmie.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 22   High: 36 Freezing level: 4500’   2500.' Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will be around +-4000’ today and then drop to 2500’ with the passage of the front tonight. .  Early morning temperatures will be quite low for this time of year through Wednesday morning.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 W Ridge Top: 5-15 NW  gusty Trend and Timing: East flow this morning will shift westerly this afternoon.  NW winds will be gusty through the night.

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

O700 Saturday:

The Snapshot:  Snow and wind today, dry with sun breaks tomorrow, snow on Monday.

The Science:  The cold front passed over the Cascade crest around midnight last night dropping .31” of water with only an inch of snow so far this morning; no surprise with the warm airmass that had to push out of the way.  Heavy snow showers, cold air and strong westerly flow will fill in behind the front today.   It is now up to the convergence zone whether Stevens Pass will get the goods or not.  Models have the convergence zone most effective just north of Stevens Pass and then sagging south this afternoon/evening.  It will be a nail biter.

The snow ends tomorrow morning as an upper-level ridge between storms moves through.  Another cold front arrives Monday with the chance of additional 2-4” of snow.

Long Range:  High pressure returns with seasonably normal temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .75-1   Snow = 8-14”  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =>>.25   Snow = 1-3  Trend and Timing: Snow will be rather light this morning with heavy snow showers this afternoon and evening.  Snow tapers off early tomorrow morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 22   High: 32 Freezing level: +-3000’. Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will drop to around 3000’ this morning.  Some daytime warming will bring surface temperature to near freezing today.  Sun breaks tomorrow will produce temps into the mid to upper 30’s.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 W Ridge Top:  5-20 W Trend and Timing: Steady westerly winds will continue through the day.   Winds diminish tomorrow and shift southerly.

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0800 Friday:

The Snapshot:  Thickening clouds today with snow tonight and tomorrow, dry Sunday/Monday. 

The Science:  Clouds are thickening over the Pacific NW this morning in response to the incoming winter storm.  The anticipated strong frontal system is maturing and still on track to bring a good dose of snow to Stevens Pass.  The main event will be tomorrow as the Puget Sound Convergence Zone gears up.   Freezing levels could drop as low as 2500’ tomorrow but will rise to +- 4500’ on Sunday.  The moisture gets cut off early Sunday morning as an upper-level ridge forms.  Therefore, expect partial clearing to develop on Sunday and Monday with little to no additional precipitation.   

Long Range:  Another, less potent front arrives late Monday night for a few more inches of snow for Tuesday.   Warming and drying is expected to develop after Tuesday.     

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .5   Snow =  3-5 Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +1.  Snow =  12-15 Trend and Timing: Mixed rain and snow is expected to develop after 5pm tonight and change to all snow around midnight.   Snow intensifies tomorrow as convergence conditions strengthen.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 46   High: 24 Freezing level: 7000’   3000.'  Trends and Timing: Daytime temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 40’s again today.  Freezing levels will drop to 4000’ around midnight tonight and will continue to descend tomorrow to +- 3000’.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 W Ridge Top: 5-15 W gusty   Trend and Timing: Winds don’t appear to be extremely strong with this storm but expect gusty ridge top winds with the convergence tomorrow.

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0830 Thursday:

The Snapshot:  Sunny and warm today; snow wind and rain begins tomorrow night and lasts through the first half of next week.

The Science:  A strong frontal system will bring heavy snow to the Cascade Mountains starting tomorrow night.  The air mass will be warm with the arrival of this front so rain can be expected to start, but it will quickly turn to snow once the front moves through.   Strong, cool, unstable westerly flow (convergence and high winds) will develop on Saturday with moderate to heavy snow through the day.  As of now current storm totals are:

  

Snow:  4-6” by 4am Saturday

            4-6  by  4pm Saturday

            4-6  by  4am Sunday morning for a total of 12-18”.

There will be a lull in the action Sunday night with more snow (additional +-4”) on Monday/Tuesday.  Warm advection is associated with this system so a mixture of rain will also be part of the package. 

Long Range:   High-pressure building off the PNW coast will bring and end to the precipitation on Wednesday. 

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow =    Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +- .5  Snow = 4-6 Trend and Timing: Today and most of tomorrow will be dry.  Rain turning to snow arrives tomorrow night.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 38   High: 50+ Freezing level: 8000.'  Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will remain high through late tomorrow night and then fall to 2000’ early Saturday morning.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top:  0-10 ESE Trend and Timing: Light east flow has developed in response to the approaching system.  Winds will shift SW then West tomorrow.   Strong winds can be anticipated on Saturday.

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0900 Wednesday:

The Snapshot:   Today and tomorrow will rather nice with sun breaks and warmer temperatures; winter returns this weekend with some snow.  

The Science: High-pressure will begin to dissipate the clouds and warm up the atmosphere for the next few days.  The northern jet stream will then take aim at the PNW with the potential for some measurable snow over the weekend. 

Storm Details: This system is a few days out and still developing so details such as timing, precipitation amounts and temperatures are still a question.   As of now, the leading edge of the first cold front is expected to reach the west slopes late Friday night.  Strong westerly flow (convergence) has the potential to dump up to a foot or more of snow on Saturday and Sunday.    Models begin to disagree with the track and strength of the following low-pressure system developing on Sunday/Monday.  Some have it tracking south with little effect on Stevens.  There is also potential for warmer air to be pulled in from the southeast interior that could equate to rain.  The one time where east flow may not be to our liking.   

Long Range: High-pressure returns on Tuesday of next week for an end to the excitement.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water =  0   Snow =  0 Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =  0  Snow =  0 Trend and Timing: Little to no precipitation is expected through most of Friday.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 28   High: 48 Freezing level: +- 6500.' Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will rise to near 7000’ during the few days.   Early morning should dip below freezing with the aid of clear night skies.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top:  5-10 W Trend and Timing: Light westerly flow will begin to strengthen Friday as the storm approaches.

JM

No fat lady singin just yet

Ok - looks like winter isn't quite done with us yet.   Details about this approaching story cycle to come in a bit. 

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST SEASON END

That's a wrap for this seasons mountain weather forecasts.  You all have a wonderful adventurous summer.   

J.M. 

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0900 Monday:

The Snapshot:  Snow flurries today and tomorrow, dry and warmer Wednesday and Thursday, snow possible late Friday night.

The Science:  A low-pressure system tracking south into Oregon will spin bands of light snow showers through the southern half the state today and tomorrow.  An upper-level ridge will begin to build over the region tomorrow producing clear, dry and warmer conditions for the remainder of the week.    

Long Range:  A cold front will bring a chance of snow later Friday night/Saturday. 

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .10    Snow =  trace Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = <.10  Snow =  trace Trend and Timing: Light snow flurries will continue through tomorrow.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 26   High: 40 Freezing level: +- 4500.' Trends and Timing: This melt/freeze temperature profile will continue for the next few days with slowly rising freezing levels.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 W shifting E Ridge Top: 0-10 W shifting E   Trend and Timing: Light westerly flow today with east flow developing tomorrow.

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0800 Friday:

The Snapshot:   Congratulations Cindy Jackson for your well deserved retirement.  Thickening clouds this morning with snow this afternoon, partly cloudy with light snow showers through the weekend.

The Science:  The low-pressure systems tracking south along the northwest coast is on schedule to spin a few bands of moisture into the Cascades Mountains today.  Radar has the leading edge of the first front just about to make landfall and should reach the mountains later this afternoon.  Intermittent snow showers with clear periods will be the pattern through the weekend as the coastal storm continues its path south. 

Long Range:  Another inch or two of snow will be possible on Monday; warm, clear spring weather will return during the second half the next week as a strong high-pressure ridge builds over the State.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .25   Snow = 1-4  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .10  Snow = trace  Trend and Timing: Snow is expected to arrive mid afternoon and then begin to diminish to light showers after midnight tonight.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 26   High: 38 Freezing level: +-4000 Trends and Timing: Diurnal temperatures swings will continue with daytime temps a few degrees warmer each day.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 W Ridge Top:  5-15 W Trend and Timing: Westerly winds with some gusty periods will continue through tomorrow.

JM