MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Date: Monday, November 25^th 2019

Good morning sportsfans! I'll be taking on the weather forecasts a few days a week again this season, it's nice to see a little snow on the ground this morning. 

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:  .79” SWE / 8” snow

Temperature profile:  29 base / 25 upper mountain

Pass level winds:  Light with moderate gusts, westerly

Barometer:     1013 mbs, falling slowly

Sky:  Light snow

Radar: Widespread showers throughout the Cascade Crest

The Forecast: Mostly cloudy with light snow and cooling temperatures today. Further cooling, intermittent clearing, and perhaps a snowflake or two Tuesday.

Long Range:  The Pacific high pressure ridge leans in over Washington for the second half of the week with a low pressure center to our south.  We should see easterly flow develop bringing cool temps, partly cloudy skies, and unfortunately not much in the way of significant snowfall.

  

The Science: NW flow aloft riding over a center of high pressure in the Pacific is bringing scattered showers to Washington State this morning. Cold air originating from British Columbia is sinking south with the development of a large-scale open trough that will deepen and move east during the day. Strong zonal flow yesterday brought short, intense bouts of snow to the Stevens Pass vicinity, we’ll take what we can get.

As the trough deepens and the off-shore ridge amplifies today, upper level flow will be strongest to the south of our forecast area. A developing low pressure system will be directed into Southern Oregon on Tuesday afternoon, leaving Washington on the cold side of the jet without any real mechanism in place for lifting (read: precipitation).

Confidence: Good, there is decent agreement between model runs for the next 3-5 days.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .1-.25 snow: 1-3” Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .10  snow: Trace Trend and Timing: Light intermittent snow showers ending this afternoon.

Temperature: Low: 22   High: 31 Snow level: 2500’ – 1000’ Trend and Timing:    Remaining steady during the day, falling further overnight and Tuesday.

Winds Base: W 5-10 Ridge Top: W-NW 10-20 Trend and Timing: Winds will diminish throughout the day, becoming variable early Tuesday morning. -Dan