December 3, 2019

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Date: Tuesday, December 3, 2019


Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:     .13” rain         
Temperature profile: 37 base / 35 mid mountain
Pass level winds:   Light Westerly                  
Barometer:     1017 and rising                       
Sky:     Overcast                     
Radar:  Light showers over the crest, more organized precip in NE Washington


The Forecast: Mostly cloudy with spotty showers Tuesday, heavier rain, possibly mixed with snow, Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 
The Science: Westerly flow over the top of a flat ridge is pushing a weak warm front into western Washington this morning. The ridge flattens further, becoming non-existent Tuesday night and allowing orographic showers and a weak trailing cold front to move through. Freezing levels will fall with the cold front but not much. Some light snow is possible at Pass level Wednesday morning.

Long Range: Thursday is looking dry with a short lived high pressure ridge moving through. A cutoff low will develop and track SW across Washington and Oregon on Friday/Saturday. Freezing levels look favorable but the exact track of the low will determine how much snow we get out of it.

Confidence: Fair thru Wednesday morning for precip type, poor for Friday/Saturday for snow amounts.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .25 snow: 0-2”

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .25-.5  snow: 1-2”

Trend and Timing:
The bulk of the moisture will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, best chance for snow is Wednesday.

Temperature:
Low: 34    High: 37
Freezing level: 5500’- 5000’

Trend and Timing:   
Steady warm temps with typical afternoon highs, slight cooling with “cold” front Tuesday night.  
 
Winds
Base: W 5-15
Ridge Top: W-SW 10-20

Trend and Timing:
Increasing winds Tuesday afternoon.

Dan

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0800 Start for Sunday 2/1/26, no ABS