7:30 Start Time for December 1, 2009. Spring Skiing in December!!! In yesterdays snow pit, (Gemini Hiking Route) found that the snowpack is approaching isothermal conditions. Will make for a bomber base, once it cools down again. Cheers, Patty

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Partner search: get with 208,228,212, 209 or 109 Dispatch: get with 219, 236 or 208

7:30 Start Time, Nov.30/2007 Spring skiing in November

7:30 Start Time for Nov.29,2009 We are getting a nice dusting on the crust. Skiing is getting better. Cheers, Patty

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/28/2009 Weather Short term: A warm front driving into southern BC will produce residual snow showers today. A pattern change to drier warmer weather will begin tomorrow. Long-term: A weak cold front will move through on Monday with high-pressure building in behind it. The rest of the week looks dry with the potential for some cold air moving in late in the week. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Saturday Precipitation “ Water: .25+ “ of Snow: 3-5 temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 28 High: 36 5000’ Low: 26 High: 34 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 5-10 W Ridge top: 5-15 W gust 20+ TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: If we are lucky, we will squeeze four or so inches of snow out of this system before it warms and tapers off through the night. A weak convergence could push totals up a bit, but overall, not expected any significant accumulation. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly rise from 4000’ and 5000’ over night. Freezing level will climb higher on Sunday, possible reaching 8000’. A cold front will bring FL’s back down on Monday. Winds: Westerly winds should stir this afternoon bringing some gusty winds through the pass tonight and tomorrow. It will be possible to get a 40mph gust or two tomorrow. Winds should taper and shift SW for Sunday. jdm

training this week

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Start Time Saturday--7:30am

Great skiing today with 4"new on a soft crust.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/27/2009 Weather Short term: It was nice to a get a surprise 4” of snow last night due to the stubborn system refusing to move very fast. The atmosphere is quickly drying and clearing to our west – the sun should make an appearance between the light snow showers through the day. Another system will slide south tomorrow for a chance of more snow. Long-term: High pressure is expected to build in on Sunday; this will push the moisture north and dry us out for the beginning of the week. The rest of the week looks to be leaning on the dry and mild side. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday Precipitation “ Water: lt.25 “ of Snow: 0-3 temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 26 High: 32 5000’ Low: 24 High: 30 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-5 NNW – shifting W Ridge top: 5-10 NNW - shifting W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Light snow showers will linger through the night. Snow will redevelop after 7am tomorrow and continue through the day. Snow will be on the wet side due to the mild temperatures. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will dip to 2000’ overnight. Freezing levels will rebound to near 4000’ tomorrow where they will hold steady until they raise further on Sunday. Winds: Light northerly winds will shift westerly overnight. Westerly will push through the pass tomorrow and be blustery at times, but nothing to worrisome. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/26/2009 Weather Short term: It was nice of last night’s storm to stall over the coast and then drift south, sparing us the heavy rain. A high-pressure ridge will pass over today bringing and end to the rain through tomorrow. Long-term: The next system will arrive Saturday bringing snow through Sunday. High pressure is expected to rebuild late in the weekend giving us a good chance to have a dry uneventful week of weather ahead. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday Precipitation “ Water: lt .10 “ of Snow: trace temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 26 High: 34 5000’ Low: 24 High: 32 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-5 NNW Ridge top: 0-5 NNW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The moisture should be pretty much through as of 2pm today. Dry tomorrow with the exception of a light snow shower or two. Freezing levels: Freezing level will fall below pass level in the next 12 hours. They will continue to fall reaching 2000’ by tomorrow afternoon. Winds: Light NNW flow due to the approaching high-pressure ridge will stick in place through tomorrow. jdm

Start Time Friday--7:30am

Gobble Gobble, How you doing? Skiing was great today as compared to yesterday.

Start Time Turkey Day--7:30am

One Bomber SnowPack-Dud

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/25/2009 Weather Short term: The sun should poke out for a few hours today before it is shadowed by thickening clouds moving ahead the next approaching system. It is currently sunny and warm above the inversion layer at Dudley’s. Warm and wet will be the mix for the next 24-36 hours. Long-term: There will be short-lived break on Friday before the next system starts to effect the weekend. Models differ on what the weekend will bring so I will wait until tomorrow to get a fix on that. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday Precipitation “ Water: .5 -.75 “ of Snow: 0 temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 38 High: 44 5000’ Low: 34 High: 40 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-10 SE Ridge top: 5-15 SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Rain will develop after 2pm today and continue through the night. The heavy rains will hopefully be held to the SW of Stevens. Rain will continue tomorrow and slowly turn to snow overnight. Snow is expected for Friday and Saturday. Storm totals by Friday morning could exceed 2” of water. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will peak close to 8000’ today and remain well above pass level until noon tomorrow. A cold front moving through tomorrow will eventually bring freezing temperatures back below pass level tomorrow night. Winds: South flow aloft will drag easterly surface winds through the pass until the inversion lifts. SW flows will then take over and remain in place through Friday morning. jdm

Start Time Wednesday 25th 7:30am

Good spring skiing today. 3" new over night with .65" water on it. Shut down 9/10 and C-3 at 11:00 due to ridership and surface slides off the ridge. See you in the morning. Jon

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/24/2009 Weather Short term: Light rain with rising surface temperatures will continue today. Tomorrow will be a dry interim day before the next moves in late. Long-term: The next system will move in tomorrow night, bringing a period of rain through the night. A cold front moves in on Thursday changing the rain to snow. Snow should continue Friday with a drying trend for the start of the weekend. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday Precipitation “ Water: lt .25 “ of Snow: 0 temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 38 High: 44 5000’ Low: 36 High: 40 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-5 SW Ridge top: 5-10 SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Today’s light rain will slowly taper off over night. Tomorrow should be relatively dry with some sun breaks until after 4pm. The next frontal system will move over the Cascades tomorrow evening bringing light to moderate rain through the night. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly rise through the day and peak around 8000’ by noon tomorrow. Freezing levels will then begin to fall but remain above pass level until sometime Thursday. Winds: Westerly flow will shift SW today. Light winds will remain out of the SW until Thursday. jdm

7:30am Start time for Tues. 11/24/09 I think it could be some fun "Spring" Skiing...

Start Time for Monday 23rd 6:15am

Great communication on avalanche control on Sunday between all Mt. operations. Ran smooth and quick. Ski the powder before the chowder. Jon

6:15 am Start Time for Sunday November 22, 2009. Should be a fun storm with good temps.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/21/2009 Weather Short term: A vigorous frontal system will push through tonight bring heavy snow to the Cascades through tomorrow afternoon. It will be great downhill sliding again tomorrow. Long-term: A high-pressure ridge will traverse the PNW late Sunday. This will bring a brief dry period before the next system approaches late Monday/Tuesday. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Saturday Precipitation “ Water: .75-1 “ of Snow: 10-14 temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 26 High: 30 5000’ Low: 24 High: 28 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 5-10 W then shift SW Ridge top: 5-15 W Then shift SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow will ramp up today as the next front approaches. Should see 6-10” on the ground by 4am and then the rest by noon or so. Snow will quickly taper off tomorrow afternoon as the pressure begins to rise. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise today to reach 4000’ after 4pm today. Cold air will fill in behind the front tomorrow bringing freezing levels back down to 2500’ by noon tomorrow. Snow levels should remain below pass level through Monday. Winds: The current westerly’s will shift SW as the front moves through tonight. The winds will continue its counterclockwise rotation and become easterly in the morning and then westerly by tomorrow afternoon. The wind will be blustery at times but shouldn’t pose much of a problem. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/20/2009 Weather Short term: This very complex weather pattern snuck in some upper level ridging last night and pushed the moisture north; thus, we got the warm air with little precipitation. This also allowed the approaching cold front to move in quicker, bringing lowering temperature and more snow through the weekend. Long-term: The overall pattern is still in place but has the look of change. The weekend will bring a mixed bag of weather as several unorganized fronts move through. Long-range models differ greatly on what is to come next week, so it’s not even worth a guess at this point. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday Precipitation “ Water: .5+ “ of Snow: 6-8 temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 26 High: 30 5000’ Low: 22 High: 28 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 5-15 W Ridge top: 10-20 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Moderate snow showers will persist through the next 24 hours. Convergence flow will help increase the orographics and bring periods of heavy snow tonight. Should have most of the forecasted snow on the ground by 7 am tomorrow. Snow will intensify tomorrow night and continue through Sunday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to fall through the day reaching 2500’ by midnight or so. Freezing levels will then bounce between 2000' and 4000’ as these weak fronts move through. Should stay below pass level through the weekend. Winds: SW flow will shift to westerly today. A weak convergence period will bring the potential for some steady 10-12 mph winds through the pass this evening. Wind will taper as it shift SW tomorrow. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/19/2009 Weather Short term: Several fronts imbedded in this storm system will pass through the mountains for the next 24-48 hours. This will raise and lower freezing levels and thus bring a mixed bag of rain and heavy snow through the night. Long-term: A steady stream of active winter weather will continue well into next week. The potential is there to have a few more feet of snow on the ground by the end of the weekend. A high pressure ridge between storms could provide some drying late Sunday/Monday. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday Precipitation “ Water: .5 -.75 “ of Snow: 4-8” temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 32 High: 36 5000’ Low: 28 High: 34 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: ESE 0-5 Ridge top: SSW 5-10 TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: There will be a lull in the action after closing today as the moisture lifts north. The best chance of rain/snow mix will be between 4pm today and 4am tomorrow. Temps should be back down tomorrow for a return of snow. Snow will increase tomorrow night as the Puget Sound Convergence potential develops. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will reach 4000’ by 4pm today and will peak just below 6000’ by midnight. They will drop below pass level sometime after 4am tomorrow. Snow levels will fluctuate between 3000 and 5000’ through the night. After tonight, freezing levels should stay in our favor through the weekend. Winds: Winds aloft will be Southerly through the night. Winds will then shift westerly in the wake of tomorrows cold front - could see some high convergence winds tomorrow night and Saturday morning. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/18/2009 Weather Short term: The next large frontal system is on its way and is expected to reach the Cascades tonight. This will again have a SW orientation, which means we will battle the rain snow level again. Long-term: The storm will begin to lift Thursday night. Snow showers with sun breaks will be possible on Friday/Saturday. The Jet stream seems to be locked in this pattern well into next week. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday Precipitation “ Water: .75-1 “ of Snow: 12-18” temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 28 High: 34 5000’ Low: 24 High: 32 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: ESE 5-15 Ridge top: SSW 10-15 TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow should develop after 2 pm today and then ramp up through the night. If lucky, heavy snow will continue through most of tomorrow. There is a chance to get a rain/snow mix tomorrow afternoon/evening. Storm totals by 4pm Thursday are currently 1.5-+2” Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise from 2500’ today to reach 4000’ by 4am tomorrow. Freezing levels will continue slowly rise to +5000’ around sundown tomorrow. The snow level will again depend on how the cold air mixed with the warm air…. Winds: Winds aloft will be SSW, which will drive the flow through the pass as easterly, this also help hold down surface temperatures. Gusty frontal winds will accompany this system, but the main high wind threat will be confined to the coast. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/17/2009 Weather Short term: The cold front that moved through early this morning will just provide snow showers today. Another very similar system as the past 2 days, will bring more precipitation with rising freezing levels to the mountains tomorrow and opening day. Long-term: This pattern seems to be well established for the next 4-6 days. We will continue to battle the freezing levels as these systems move through - which should be expected for November weather. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday Precipitation “ Water: .25 “ of Snow: 2-6 Temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 26 High: 30 5000’ Low: 22 High: 28 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 5-10 WSW Ridge top: 5-15 WSW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow showers will come and go for the next 24 hours. Snow will develop after noon tomorrow and ramp up through the night. We will play the rain, snow, rain game again with this next system. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will drop to 3000’ today. Freezing levels will begin to rise to 4000’ after 4pm tomorrow . Same freezing level game as the last 2 days - warm air will over ride the cool air and the battle will commence. Let’s hope the cool air wins out again. Winds: Gusty westerlies will mellow today and then shift SW in reaction to the tomorrow system. Gusty frontal winds will be possible, but overall not expecting any significant wind event with the next storm. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/16/2009 Weather Short term: It seems that the enough cool air east of the crest was stubborn enough to hold off the rain-nice. A low-pressure system stalled off the coast will continue to pull up moisture from the SW through tomorrow. Still expecting a rain event today, but it now should be shorter lived and do less harm to our snowpack. Long-term: A cold front will move in tomorrow, this should open the door for several more systems to move in. Snow will continue tomorrow, with another SW system setting up for Wednesday/Thursday. This will bring rising freezing levels and more precipitation. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Monday Precipitation “ Water: 1-1.5” “ of Snow: 4-6 Base area temperatures (F): Low: 28-32 High: 38-40 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-10 SW Ridge top: 5-15 SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Moderate to heavy precipitation will continue through the next 24-48 hours. Models still show rain below 5000’ between noon today and 4am tomorrow. let’s hope the models continue to be wrong... If we do get rain it should turn back to snow after 7 am. 36 hour storm totals are showing 2-3”of water. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will inch up today to 6000’. Freezing levels are expected to stay high until the cold front passes through tomorrow morning. Freezing levels will drop to 3000’ in the wake of tomorrow’s cold front. Winds: We currently have wind out of the south, this is pushing the cold air from the east through the pass, another reason we have stayed in snow. Gusty SW flow will continue through tomorrow. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/15/2009 Weather Discussion: A strong low-pressure system will park itself off the NW coast for the next few days. Warm air from the south will override cool air changing the snow to rain. Moderate to heavy rain is possible through Tuesday morning. Long-term models show NW flow continuing to bring active weather through the week. An overall cooling trend will bring more snow to the Pass starting on Tuesday. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Sunday Precipitation “ Water: .5-1 “ of Snow: 3-6 Base area temperatures (F): Low: 30 High: 40+ Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 5- 10 SSW Ridge top: 5-15 SSW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow will change to rain today. Waves of moderate to heavy precipitation will move through the mountains for the next 24-36hrs. A lull in the action will occur overnight before the next significant wave hits tomorrow afternoon. Storm totals through Tuesday morning could exceed 2” of water. Unfortunately, this is going to be mostly rain. Freezing levels: Yo-yo is the word for the Freezing levels for the next 24-36hrs. Freezing levels will bounce between 4000 and 8000’ through Tuesday morning. But for the most part stay above Pass level. Winds: Gusty SW flow will dominate the wind pattern through most of this storm event. JDM

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/14/2009 Weather Discussion: Clouds will increase today as a deep, south reaching trough approaches the coast. This will bring the next round of precipitation with warming temperatures to the mountains tomorrow. This system will draw up warm air from the SW as and parks itself off the NW coast. Long-term models show an active weather pattern with an overall cooling trend continuing through most of next week. Rain showers expected Sunday night and Monday. It is looking ok for snow after Monday. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Saturday Precipitation “ Water: .25-5 “ of Snow: 4-6 Base area temperatures (F): Low: 20 High: 34 Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-5 WNW Ridge top: 5-10 WNW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow should develop after midnight and ramp up during the day. We should get some good accumulation before it turns to rain after 4pm tomorrow. The good news is that most of the heavy precipitation will be confined to the northwestern coast and NW corner of the North Cascades. This will hopefully just provide marginal rain amounts for the North Central Cascades. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will begin to rise through the night. Freezing levels are expected to reach 4000’ by tomorrow afternoon. Freezing levels will continue to rise reaching 6-7000’ on Monday. Freezing levels will begin to fall on Tuesday. Winds: Light WNW winds will shift W then SW as the front approaches. Could see some gusty frontal winds tomorrow afternoon. SW flow will dominate through Monday. JDM

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/13/2009 Weather Discussion: Snow will turn showers today and taper off overnight. A ridge of high pressure will dry things out tomorrow before a large trough of warm and wet weather approach the PNW on Sunday. Long-term models show Sunday’s system initially starting out as snow but then turning to rain as the trough develops a southwest fetch. Cool air, with more moisture is expected to fill in behind this system on Monday/Tuesday. Too early to be confident in the effect or timing of these features. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday Precipitation “ Water: .25 “ of Snow: 2-4” Base area temperature: Low 20 High 24 Trend: down Winds speed: Pass level 0-5 SW shifting WNW Ridge top: 5-15 SW shifting WNW -gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The snow will begin to taper off after 4pm today. Showers will linger to about midnight. Tomorrow expect dry weather with some sun breaks. Clouds will move in tomorrow evening in preparation for Sunday’s system. Currently, on Sunday, the precip will start out as snow and then turn to rain after noon. Not sure when it will turn back to snow – stay tuned for those details later. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover near 2500-3000’ through the day and then drop overnight. Freezing levels could dip below 1000’ during the early morning hours. (watch for freezing rain on the roads down valley) Freezing levels will then begin to rise, reaching pass level by noon on Sunday. Freezing levels will then continue to climb above ridge top elevations into Monday. Winds: Winds will be gusty at times as these front come and go. Winds will swing to W and the NW through the next 24 hours. SW flow will accompany Sunday’s frontal system. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/12/2009 Weather Discussion: A cold front will bring snow to the mountains tomorrow. Long-term models show a high-pressure ridge building on Saturday, producing dry warmer weather. Another vigorous system is tracking in for Sunday with high freezing levels and plenty of moisture. I will wait for tomorrow’s model runs to get more confident in the detail. For now, it looks like snow changing to rain and then back to snow Sunday/Monday/Tuesday. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday Precipitation .25 -.5 in. Water 4-6” in. Snow Temperatures Low 20 High 32 Winds 0-5 SW Shifting W 5-15 mph TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow will arrive here after 4am tomorrow morning. Snow will ramp up through the day and then quickly taper off overnight. Storm totals by 4am Saturday are being downgraded with every model run, so it is not looking like a huge snow producer for us. We will be lucky to get a foot. Saturday looks dry. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly drop from 3000’ today to 1000’ by Saturday morning. Lowest surface temps could dip into the upper teens during the early morning hours. Cool temps should stick around until Saturday. Winds: Light SW winds will shift westerly with the passing of the front tomorrow morning. Could get some initial gusty ridge top winds in the morning but they should be short lived.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/11/2009 Weather Discussion: NW flow will continue to push bands of moisture through the PNW for the rest of the week. Tomorrow’s band is tracking to the south of Stevens, so not expecting much from that. A strong cold front will bring our next batch of significant snow on Friday. Long-term models show a wet frontal system bringing high freezing levels and possible some rain to the mountains for the second part of the weekend. There is cold air following this system so could see a rain turning to snow event for the start of the week. This is a bit far out to be confident in the details. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday Precipitation Lt .25 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 30 Winds 0-5 W 0-10 SE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Light snow showers will persist over the Cascades for the next 24 hours. The next band of moisture will track south tomorrow bringing just a few flurries. No significant accumulation expected until Friday. Friday storm looks good as of now– storm totals could exceed a foot of new snow by Saturday morning. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will settle around the 3000’ level for the next 24- 36 hours. Surface temperatures could cool off nicely with some periods of clearing overnight. FL’s are expected to drop even further with Friday’s storm. Winds: Light westerly flow will swing south then east through the next 24 hours.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/10/2009 Weather Discussion: Nice sun breaks, beautiful wintery landscape. Waves of moisture will continue to pass through the PNW as more frontal systems slide down the BC coast. Long-term models show a series of storms continuing to slide down the Canadian coastline. Therefore, we can expect this pattern to continue for the extended period. There will be periods of dry and sunny weather between these systems. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday Precipitation .25 + in. Water 3-6” in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 36 Winds 0-5 SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The next wave of moisture will push through tonight bringing a few more inches of snow. Another break, similar to today, will occur tomorrow with another system moving through tomorrow night and yet another on Thursday/Friday. These systems are moving through quickly so not expecting huge amounts of accumulation, but we should keep building our snowpack. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will inch above 4000’ today and then drop to 3000’ for tomorrow. This pattern will continue as these fronts move through. These sun breaks will push surface temps up above freezing. Winds: Surface winds will be mild, out of the SW for the next few days. Not expecting any major wind issues for the remainder of the week.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/9/2009 Weather Discussion: Small but vigorous frontal bands will pass through the mountains today and tomorrow bringing some snow with each passing system. Long-term models show NW flow continuing to bring wintery weather to the NW Mountains for most of the week. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Monday Precipitation .5+ in. Water 3-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 34 Winds 5-10 SE shifting 0-10 SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The first band will pass through today and continue through the night. There will be a brief dry period tomorrow with the next band moving in Tuesday evening. A bigger system is setting up for Wednesday/Thursday with cooler temps in tow. Freezing levels: There will be a spike up in temperature with the passing of these small fronts. The freezing level will hover between 3500 and 4500’ until Wednesday when it is expected to drop below 3000’. There should be enough cold air aloft to keep the snow line below the highway level. However, I wouldn’t rule out a rain drop or two mixed in with snow. Winds: SSE flow will be blustery today. Winds will slowly shift SW then W by overnight. Not expected any significant winds through the pass until Wednesday when we could see our friend, the Puget Sound Convergence.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/6/2009 Weather Discussion: Snow should taper to showers today before another pulse of moisture pushes through the mountains tomorrow. Long-term models show a weak high-pressure ridge trying to build on Sunday. This will produce a short period of dry weather on Sunday before the next frontal band approaches the PNW on Monday. Cool NW flow is expected to continue through much of next week. Has the making of a really good base. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday Precipitation .25 -.5 in. Water 4-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 34 Cooler upper mountain Winds 0-10 SW gusty tapering TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Should reach our .75” of water by noon today. The steady snow fall should start a showery pattern this afternoon before the next band of precipitation passes through the mountains early tomorrow morning. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will fluctuate between 4 and 5000’ for the next 24 hours. Freezing levels are expected to inch up by Sunday as the high pressure briefly builds. A reminder is that snow line is not the same as the freezing levels. The snow line can be as much as 1000’ below freezing levels. This depends on how much cold air is in the upper atmosphere. In this case there is plenty of cold air aloft to keep most of our precipitation in the frozen state. Winds: WSW winds will continue to be blustery but not a huge factor. Winds should remain westerly with a slight SW bend to them through the weekend. jdm

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

11/5/2009 Weather Discussion: The strong frontal system is still on track to bring moderate rain today and snow tomorrow. Long-term models show a steady stream of moisture pushed by cool NW flow will continue through the weekend. Storm totals through the weekend could exceed 2” of water – If the freezing levels cooperate that could mean +12-24” of snow by Monday. There is another storm tracking in for next week, which could bring the potential of more snow. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday Precipitation .75-1 in. Water 4-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 40 Winds 0-10 SW 10-20 wsw TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The rain should reach the mountains by noon or just after. Rain is expected to slowly turn to snow after midnight. Mixed rain and snow below 4500’ with snow for the upper mountain will be possible through most of tomorrow. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will drop to 4000’ after midnight as the cold front moves through. The Freezing levels will hover around 4k through tomorrow. Freezing levels are then expected to slowly fall to around 3000’ for the weekend. Winds: The current east flow will swing S then SW as the first waves moves through. A strong westerly push will accompany tonights cold front producing gusty ridge top winds. (850mb) Pass levels winds will be gusty at times but shouldn’t be too bad. jdm

bummer

Sorry its not working now.

Precip model

Hey it worked. Check out this precip model. Colors represent water content. pink is 1.5" blue is .25" this is a 60hr prediction model. Pretty impressive.

Precip model

Hey it worked. Here is another MM5 shot. available water - pink is 1.5" Pretty cool.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

Tried to down load a weather model of this impressive storm not sure if it will work. 850mb pressure chart with Freezing levels. 11/4/2009 Weather Discussion: The cloud deck will thicken over the Cascade crest today as a strong, very impressive frontal system takes aim at the PNW. The coast will see hurricane force winds with ocean swell prediction reaching 20+ feet. (get your surf board waxed up Forbes) This front will hit the mountain tomorrow, bringing sporty weather of heavy rain and gusty winds. A cold front will follow late Thursday night dropping freezing levels enough to produce some snow on Friday/Saturday. Long-term models show an active early winter weather pattern continuing well into next week. Should see some nice snow on the ground by the start on next week. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 34 High 40+ Winds 5-10 SW gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Rain will arrive tomorrow morning and increase throughout the day. Water content could exceed 1.5” by noon Friday. Rain turns to a rain/snow mix below 4500’ on Friday and should turn to all snow through the weekend. Snow accumulations of 4-6” are possible on Friday and more through the weekend. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will be around the 7000’ range for the next 24 hours. Surface temperatures will be unseasonable warm tomorrow possible reaching the high 40s. Freezing levels are then expected to drop Friday morning in the wake of the approaching cold front. Expect to see 4000’FL’s on Friday and then descend further on Saturday. Winds: Strong SW flow will produce gusty conditions tomorrow. The cold front will shift winds to westerly on Friday producing strong convergence winds through the Pass. Current models show 40mph+ winds possible on Friday. “sporty” jdm

THE WEATHER

11/3/2009 Weather Discussion: High pressure will continue to provide nice fall weather for the next 24 hours. A warm front will move through tomorrow night marking the beginning of a significant change. Long-term models show a strong NW flow developing on Thursday. This will bring stormy weather with lots of moisture to the mountains Thursday through the weekend. A cold front will follow on Friday dropping freezing levels to produce some snow for the weekend. 24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 40 + Winds 0-5 E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: High clouds will move in tonight but it should remain dry until Thursday. Rain and lots of it, will be on the menu for Thursday. Rain will slowly turn to snow on Friday. Active precip is expected to continue well into next week. Freezing levels: Cool air trapped in the eastern basin will keep surface temperatures near freezing for the next 24hrs. Freezing levels will then shoot up as a warm front moves through tomorrow night. Could see temps near 50 tomorrow afternoon. Winds: Light east flow will continue through the night and then slowly shift southerly tomorrow. Winds, powered by the strong NW flow, will gradually pick up towards the end of the week.