Hey Everybody,
Thanks for all your hard work on control. Nice to finish 2011 with the best powder since forever.
Happy New Years!!!
Love you all, Patty
December 31, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/31/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Powder and sunshine-what a great way to spend the last day of 2011. Clouds will thicken today as another batch of moisture approaches the PNW late tonight. We should have a few inches of snow on the grounds to start out the day tomorrow.
Long-term: The start of the week will be active with the snow/mixed rain game starting up again.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .25- <.5
24hr Snow Total= 3-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow will be likely between midnight and noon tomorrow. Moisture is expected to lift north tomorrow afternoon with dry conditions developing for night skiing.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 30
Freezing level: 1500’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Clear skies will allow surface temperatures to dip into the teens tonight. Freezing levels will rise to above Pass level west of the crest tomorrow. East flow will hold surface temperature near freezing for most of the day.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will become well established today and remain the pattern through tomorrow.
General Discussion: Powder and sunshine-what a great way to spend the last day of 2011. Clouds will thicken today as another batch of moisture approaches the PNW late tonight. We should have a few inches of snow on the grounds to start out the day tomorrow.
Long-term: The start of the week will be active with the snow/mixed rain game starting up again.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .25- <.5
24hr Snow Total= 3-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow will be likely between midnight and noon tomorrow. Moisture is expected to lift north tomorrow afternoon with dry conditions developing for night skiing.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 30
Freezing level: 1500’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Clear skies will allow surface temperatures to dip into the teens tonight. Freezing levels will rise to above Pass level west of the crest tomorrow. East flow will hold surface temperature near freezing for most of the day.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will become well established today and remain the pattern through tomorrow.
December 30, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/30/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Whew! What a day. Snow showers will slowly taper off through the night with dry conditions developing tomorrow. We might even get some sun tomorrow.
Long-term: The next batch of moisture will arrive early Sunday morning. A less frequent but still active weather pattern is expected to continue next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25- .40
24hr Snow Total= 3-5
Trend and Timing:
Remnant snow showers will persist through the evening. Tomorrow will be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 20
Freezing level: 4000’ 1500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will drop tonight with cool surface temperatures hanging around tomorrow. Southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures to start the new year.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Gusty westerly winds will persist through the evening. Winds will mellow tomorrow and shift easterly.
General Discussion: Whew! What a day. Snow showers will slowly taper off through the night with dry conditions developing tomorrow. We might even get some sun tomorrow.
Long-term: The next batch of moisture will arrive early Sunday morning. A less frequent but still active weather pattern is expected to continue next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25- .40
24hr Snow Total= 3-5
Trend and Timing:
Remnant snow showers will persist through the evening. Tomorrow will be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 20
Freezing level: 4000’ 1500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will drop tonight with cool surface temperatures hanging around tomorrow. Southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures to start the new year.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Gusty westerly winds will persist through the evening. Winds will mellow tomorrow and shift easterly.
December 29, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/29/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Finally some good news in the weather. Snow tonight and tomorrow.
Long-Term. A high pressure ridge is expected build over the PNW on Saturday. This will likely set the weekend up to be dry and possibly sunny.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5-.75
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = +1.25
24hr Snow Total= 10-14
Trend and Timing:
Snow will arrive this afternoon and fall through the night. Snow will be heavy at times, with a short-lived mixed snow/rain event possible around midnight. Light to moderate snow will continue through most of tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 3000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will spike up to around 4000’ late tonight. Temps will then slowly fall through tomorrow with freezing levels reaching 2000’ or lower by Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E shifting 10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will flop back and forth from E to W until strong westerly flow takes over tomorrow. Persistent westerly winds will be something of a nuisance tomorrow and Saturday.
General Discussion: Finally some good news in the weather. Snow tonight and tomorrow.
Long-Term. A high pressure ridge is expected build over the PNW on Saturday. This will likely set the weekend up to be dry and possibly sunny.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5-.75
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = +1.25
24hr Snow Total= 10-14
Trend and Timing:
Snow will arrive this afternoon and fall through the night. Snow will be heavy at times, with a short-lived mixed snow/rain event possible around midnight. Light to moderate snow will continue through most of tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 3000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will spike up to around 4000’ late tonight. Temps will then slowly fall through tomorrow with freezing levels reaching 2000’ or lower by Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E shifting 10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will flop back and forth from E to W until strong westerly flow takes over tomorrow. Persistent westerly winds will be something of a nuisance tomorrow and Saturday.
December 28, 2011
Occluded Fronts
There are two types of occlusion, warm and cold. In a cold occlusion, the air mass overtaking the warm front is cooler than the cool air ahead of the warm front, and plows under both air masses. In a warm occlusion, the air mass overtaking the warm front is not as cool as the cold air ahead of the warm front, and rides over the colder air mass while lifting the warm air.
Today a cold front is overtaking a warm front - warm air is separated (occluded). Therefore, there will be very little temperature change as the front passes today. Cold air will fill in behind the front tomorrow.
Pink front is the occlusion. Cold front drives south.
Today a cold front is overtaking a warm front - warm air is separated (occluded). Therefore, there will be very little temperature change as the front passes today. Cold air will fill in behind the front tomorrow.
Pink front is the occlusion. Cold front drives south.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/28/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Quite the storm. Bummer the snow couldn’t hold on. A cold/occluded front is just now making land fall along the PNW coast. The front is expected to pass over the mountains later today or tonight. Once the front passes, the moisture will begin to taper off and temperatures will begin to fall.
Long-term: Tomorrow will be relatively dry with the next system bringing snow to the mountains for Friday. There will be a break on Saturday with the next storm arriving on Sunday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5-.75
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = 1
24hr Snow Total= 2-6 base 6-10 upper ridge
Trend and Timing:
Pockets of cold air will bring snow at times below 4500’ with rain likely in the base area. The precipitation is expected to taper off tomorrow morning with most of the day being relatively dry. The next wave of moisture will hit after 4pm tomorrow with snow likely through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 36
Freezing level: 4500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ for the remainder of the day. Temperatures will begin to fall after midnight with freezing levels falling to +-3500’.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
Winds will mellow out a bit today and ramp back up later tonight with the arrival of the front. +40mph gust will be likely overnight with winds tapering off tomorrow afternoon and then shifting southerly.
General Discussion: Quite the storm. Bummer the snow couldn’t hold on. A cold/occluded front is just now making land fall along the PNW coast. The front is expected to pass over the mountains later today or tonight. Once the front passes, the moisture will begin to taper off and temperatures will begin to fall.
Long-term: Tomorrow will be relatively dry with the next system bringing snow to the mountains for Friday. There will be a break on Saturday with the next storm arriving on Sunday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5-.75
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = 1
24hr Snow Total= 2-6 base 6-10 upper ridge
Trend and Timing:
Pockets of cold air will bring snow at times below 4500’ with rain likely in the base area. The precipitation is expected to taper off tomorrow morning with most of the day being relatively dry. The next wave of moisture will hit after 4pm tomorrow with snow likely through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 36
Freezing level: 4500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ for the remainder of the day. Temperatures will begin to fall after midnight with freezing levels falling to +-3500’.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
Winds will mellow out a bit today and ramp back up later tonight with the arrival of the front. +40mph gust will be likely overnight with winds tapering off tomorrow afternoon and then shifting southerly.
Cold front on the coast
An approaching cold front is just about to hit the coast. Notice the long fetch
of moisture stretching across the entire pacific. Its gonna be a wet one.
of moisture stretching across the entire pacific. Its gonna be a wet one.
December 27, 2011
Complex Storm
This has been a very interesting storm to watch. It is very complex with imbedded occlusions and crazy temperature layering. It seems that the approaching warm front out west has stalled a bit. This must have allowed cool air in the upper atmoshpere to slide in from the north. Notice the north/south "bend" in the clouds along the southern BC coast. I hope the pocket of cold air hangs in there long as possible. Let it snow baby.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/27/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Yuk! A strong frontal system will bring heavy precipitation to the mountains tonight and tomorrow. Unfortunately it will be mostly rain. The wind will be an issue for the next few days as well.
Long-term: A cold front drops in on Thursday which will hopefully bring snow for the weekend. Storms will continue to track towards the PNW well into the new year.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“water by 4am= .5 -.75
24hr total “of water = 1-2
24hr Snow Total= 0 base, 5-12 above 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Heavy rain is expected below 4500’ with mixed rain and snow around 5000’ and higher. With some luck the upper mountain will get more snow than rain. The upper elevations (+5K) could receive several feet of snow by week’s end.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 32 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 6000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to 6000’ tonight. Freezing levels are not expected to drop below 4000’ until Thursday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W gusts to 40+ possible
Trend and Timing:
Strong westerly winds are expected to accompany this storm. Watch for sustained winds of +20pmh, with +50mph possible tomorrow.
General Discussion: Yuk! A strong frontal system will bring heavy precipitation to the mountains tonight and tomorrow. Unfortunately it will be mostly rain. The wind will be an issue for the next few days as well.
Long-term: A cold front drops in on Thursday which will hopefully bring snow for the weekend. Storms will continue to track towards the PNW well into the new year.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“water by 4am= .5 -.75
24hr total “of water = 1-2
24hr Snow Total= 0 base, 5-12 above 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Heavy rain is expected below 4500’ with mixed rain and snow around 5000’ and higher. With some luck the upper mountain will get more snow than rain. The upper elevations (+5K) could receive several feet of snow by week’s end.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 32 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 6000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to 6000’ tonight. Freezing levels are not expected to drop below 4000’ until Thursday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W gusts to 40+ possible
Trend and Timing:
Strong westerly winds are expected to accompany this storm. Watch for sustained winds of +20pmh, with +50mph possible tomorrow.
December 26, 2011
The advection battle
This is one of those storm cycles where the freezing levels are right on the edge. The upper atmosphere seems to be plenty cold for snow, but how strong the advection (warm air rising up from the surface) will determine how much snow and or rain we will get.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/26/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The next few days will be very active with moderate to heavy precipitation likely.
Long-term: Several low pressure systems tracking across the Pacific will continue to drive storms through the PNW for the remainder of the week. Freezing levels will continue to hover near or above Pass level so expect snow, mixed rain/snow and periods of all rain throughout the week. Water equivalent totals for the week could exceed 3”.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total=4-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow will develop this afternoon and continue through the night. There will be a small (hardly noticeable) break before the next round of precipitation moves in tomorrow. Expect moderate to heavy mixed rain and snow tomorrow and with a chance of rain on Wednesday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 36
Freezing level: 2000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover around 2500’ through midnight. Freezing levels will then rise to Pass level during the early morning hours. Surface temperatures will be near or above freezing through tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to rise above Pass level on Wednesday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E surface
10-20 W ridge tops.
Trend and Timing:
East flow will hang around through the day. Strong westerly flow is expected above 4500’ tomorrow. Sporadic and strong gusty winds will be possible with these fronts.
General Discussion: The next few days will be very active with moderate to heavy precipitation likely.
Long-term: Several low pressure systems tracking across the Pacific will continue to drive storms through the PNW for the remainder of the week. Freezing levels will continue to hover near or above Pass level so expect snow, mixed rain/snow and periods of all rain throughout the week. Water equivalent totals for the week could exceed 3”.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total=4-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow will develop this afternoon and continue through the night. There will be a small (hardly noticeable) break before the next round of precipitation moves in tomorrow. Expect moderate to heavy mixed rain and snow tomorrow and with a chance of rain on Wednesday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 36
Freezing level: 2000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover around 2500’ through midnight. Freezing levels will then rise to Pass level during the early morning hours. Surface temperatures will be near or above freezing through tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to rise above Pass level on Wednesday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E surface
10-20 W ridge tops.
Trend and Timing:
East flow will hang around through the day. Strong westerly flow is expected above 4500’ tomorrow. Sporadic and strong gusty winds will be possible with these fronts.
December 25, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/25/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. Our present is snow today as a cold front approaches the mountain.
Long-term: Today will be the first of a series of storms to barrage the PNW through the final week of 2011. The freezing levels will fluctuate between 3000’ – 5000’ for this series of storms.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= +.25
“water by 4am= <.25
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total= 4-6+
Trend and Timing:
The leading edge of the moisture is creeping its way over the Olympics this morning and should reach the Cascades after 10am today. Light to moderate snow, enhanced by the Puget Sound Convergence Zone at times, will continue through the evening. Snow will taper to showers tonight with a relatively dry start to the day. The next front will bring more snow to the mountains after noon tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to stay below pass level through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 W gust + 20mph
Trend and Timing:
East flow this morning will shift westerly when the front arrives. Gusty frontal winds will be possible but not sustained.
General Discussion: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. Our present is snow today as a cold front approaches the mountain.
Long-term: Today will be the first of a series of storms to barrage the PNW through the final week of 2011. The freezing levels will fluctuate between 3000’ – 5000’ for this series of storms.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= +.25
“water by 4am= <.25
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total= 4-6+
Trend and Timing:
The leading edge of the moisture is creeping its way over the Olympics this morning and should reach the Cascades after 10am today. Light to moderate snow, enhanced by the Puget Sound Convergence Zone at times, will continue through the evening. Snow will taper to showers tonight with a relatively dry start to the day. The next front will bring more snow to the mountains after noon tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to stay below pass level through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 W gust + 20mph
Trend and Timing:
East flow this morning will shift westerly when the front arrives. Gusty frontal winds will be possible but not sustained.
Shark Fin
Remember the "shark fin" analogy? Good snow later today with a warmfront followed by a cold front tomorrow.
December 24, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/24/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The moisture will lift north today for a relatively dry night. A cold front will bring snow to the mountains tomorrow. Timing will be everything whether or not we will see a little rain at the start. But is should be mostly snow through the meat of the day.
Long-term: A nice PNW storm cycle is underway so expect active weather to finish out the year. The freezing levels will be near Pass level for most of the approaching storms, so keep your fingers crossed.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = +.25
24hr Snow Total= 2-5
Trend and Timing:
Things will quickly begin to dry out this afternoon. A few lingering showers will hover over the crest through the night. Snow is expected after 7am tomorrow and should continue through the day. The bulk of the precipitation will likely fall later in the day.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 5000’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will peak near 5000’ today and stay high through the night. Freezing levels are expected to drop below pass level after 7am tomorrow morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 SE shifting to 10-12 W tomorrow
Trend and Timing:
Southerly flow, which will move through pass from the east, will continue through the night. Watch for strong westerly winds tomorrow as convergence conditions develop. Winds will begin to taper off after 4pm.
General Discussion: The moisture will lift north today for a relatively dry night. A cold front will bring snow to the mountains tomorrow. Timing will be everything whether or not we will see a little rain at the start. But is should be mostly snow through the meat of the day.
Long-term: A nice PNW storm cycle is underway so expect active weather to finish out the year. The freezing levels will be near Pass level for most of the approaching storms, so keep your fingers crossed.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = +.25
24hr Snow Total= 2-5
Trend and Timing:
Things will quickly begin to dry out this afternoon. A few lingering showers will hover over the crest through the night. Snow is expected after 7am tomorrow and should continue through the day. The bulk of the precipitation will likely fall later in the day.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 5000’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will peak near 5000’ today and stay high through the night. Freezing levels are expected to drop below pass level after 7am tomorrow morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 SE shifting to 10-12 W tomorrow
Trend and Timing:
Southerly flow, which will move through pass from the east, will continue through the night. Watch for strong westerly winds tomorrow as convergence conditions develop. Winds will begin to taper off after 4pm.
Tripple Point
The leading warm front of a tripple point frontal system, just now entering southern Canada, is the culprit of the warm moisture today. But as you can see below, a strong cold front is hot on its heels. If the temperatures cooperates - this should be a nice snow producer. Monday may be some awesome skiing, or snowboarding, if you are into that.
December 23, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/23/2011 Weather
General Discussion: It is nice to see some new snow. The groomers did a ton of work in Mill Valley, so take advantage of that if you can. After a relatively dry night, a warm front will bring a batch of moisture to the mountains tomorrow. Unfortunately this looks to be on the warm side.
Long-term: A Christmas present for us all; Temperatures will drop on Sunday with a good dose of snow likely. More snow is expected throughout the week with a better looking temperatures regime.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .25-.5
24hr Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
These snow showers will taper off once the cold front moves east off the crest later today. Tonight will be relatively dry with a warm front arriving early tomorrow morning. Rain in the base area with mixed rain and snow above 4500’ is expected tomorrow. It will be all said-and-done by noon as the precipitation quickly lifts north.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 38
Freezing level: 3500’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to reach 5000’ by noon tomorrow. Freezing levels will drop back below Pass level Sunday morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 WSW
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will be relatively light today with some gusty periods possible. Winds will shift southerly tomorrow.
General Discussion: It is nice to see some new snow. The groomers did a ton of work in Mill Valley, so take advantage of that if you can. After a relatively dry night, a warm front will bring a batch of moisture to the mountains tomorrow. Unfortunately this looks to be on the warm side.
Long-term: A Christmas present for us all; Temperatures will drop on Sunday with a good dose of snow likely. More snow is expected throughout the week with a better looking temperatures regime.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .25-.5
24hr Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
These snow showers will taper off once the cold front moves east off the crest later today. Tonight will be relatively dry with a warm front arriving early tomorrow morning. Rain in the base area with mixed rain and snow above 4500’ is expected tomorrow. It will be all said-and-done by noon as the precipitation quickly lifts north.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 38
Freezing level: 3500’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to reach 5000’ by noon tomorrow. Freezing levels will drop back below Pass level Sunday morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 WSW
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will be relatively light today with some gusty periods possible. Winds will shift southerly tomorrow.
December 22, 2011
Sporty Weather
Looks like our jet stream has finally decided to shift south over the PNW. Strong westerly flow is expected to drive several storms our way. Keep and eye on the freezing levels - they are going to be close. The winds will also be a contender.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/22/2011 Weather
General Discussion: You better enjoy this beautiful day because it is about to change. The first of several fronts will move through the PNW starting tomorrow.
Long-term: Strong westerly flow, powered by the northern jet, will set the stage for several storms to track towards the PNW. For now Sunday is looking the best for significant snow with another storm hot on its heels to the start out the week. My only concern is the freezing levels; the freezing levels are expected to bounce between 3000’ and 6000’ as these storms move through. So we may have to endure a little rain along with the snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = <.25
24hr Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will develop during the early morning hours and continue through the day tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 32
Freezing level: 1500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to Pass level later today. Temps will hover near freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E changing to 10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow is expected strengthen tomorrow with potential ridge top winds topping + 20mph. The winds will be something to contend with through this entire storm cycle.
General Discussion: You better enjoy this beautiful day because it is about to change. The first of several fronts will move through the PNW starting tomorrow.
Long-term: Strong westerly flow, powered by the northern jet, will set the stage for several storms to track towards the PNW. For now Sunday is looking the best for significant snow with another storm hot on its heels to the start out the week. My only concern is the freezing levels; the freezing levels are expected to bounce between 3000’ and 6000’ as these storms move through. So we may have to endure a little rain along with the snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = <.25
24hr Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will develop during the early morning hours and continue through the day tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 32
Freezing level: 1500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to Pass level later today. Temps will hover near freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E changing to 10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow is expected strengthen tomorrow with potential ridge top winds topping + 20mph. The winds will be something to contend with through this entire storm cycle.
December 21, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/21/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The mountains will receive clear and cool conditions today as high pressure builds over the region.
Long-term: Strong westerly flow will bring a more active weather pattern starting on Friday and lasting through the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Dry conditions are expected to last through tomorrow. Light snow is expected on Friday with another stronger system for late Saturday/Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain low through the night. Air from the SW will begin to warm up the atmosphere west of the crest, while cold air settles in the eastern basin.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue to move through the Pass through most of tomorrow.
General Discussion: The mountains will receive clear and cool conditions today as high pressure builds over the region.
Long-term: Strong westerly flow will bring a more active weather pattern starting on Friday and lasting through the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Dry conditions are expected to last through tomorrow. Light snow is expected on Friday with another stronger system for late Saturday/Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain low through the night. Air from the SW will begin to warm up the atmosphere west of the crest, while cold air settles in the eastern basin.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue to move through the Pass through most of tomorrow.
December 20, 2011
Northern Jet showing promise for next week.
Long Range Forecast models are showing the northern jet taking a more southerly track starting on Sunday. Below is an Isotach model for Sunday - good possitioning for a storm track to ride along. Hopeful.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/20/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Once the approaching cold front passes east of the mountains later today, these snow showers will begin to taper off and high pressure will build.
Long-term: Dry conditions will continue through Thursday with a weak front bringing more light snow on Friday. A larger system is showing promise for snow on Sunday and then again early next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.15
“water by 4am=.10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 1-3
Trend and Timing:
Light passing snow showers will likely continue through the early morning hours. The atmosphere will stabilize tomorrow with dry conditions continuing through Thursday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: 3000’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will continue to fall through the night. Freezing levels are expected to ascend back to near Pass level on Friday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W
Trend and Timing:
These gusty winds will begin to taper off once the front passes through later today. Winds will remain westerly through tomorrow.
General Discussion: Once the approaching cold front passes east of the mountains later today, these snow showers will begin to taper off and high pressure will build.
Long-term: Dry conditions will continue through Thursday with a weak front bringing more light snow on Friday. A larger system is showing promise for snow on Sunday and then again early next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.15
“water by 4am=.10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 1-3
Trend and Timing:
Light passing snow showers will likely continue through the early morning hours. The atmosphere will stabilize tomorrow with dry conditions continuing through Thursday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: 3000’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will continue to fall through the night. Freezing levels are expected to ascend back to near Pass level on Friday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W
Trend and Timing:
These gusty winds will begin to taper off once the front passes through later today. Winds will remain westerly through tomorrow.
December 19, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/19/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Broken clouds with sun today. A system slipping in from the north will produce some snow tomorrow.
Long-term: This pattern of a day of light snow followed by two days of dry cool weather will continue through the Christmas Holidays. So expect Wed/Thursday to be cool and dry with snow possible and Friday…
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Snow is expected to develop during the early morning hours and continue through most of the day. This system is not packing a lot of energy, but with some luck, we may squeeze +4”of snow out it by the end of tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Cold air is expected to drop in from the north tomorrow. This will drop freezing levels well below Pass level for the middle of the week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 WNW
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will be breezy at times today. Northerly flow will begin tomorrow.
General Discussion: Broken clouds with sun today. A system slipping in from the north will produce some snow tomorrow.
Long-term: This pattern of a day of light snow followed by two days of dry cool weather will continue through the Christmas Holidays. So expect Wed/Thursday to be cool and dry with snow possible and Friday…
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Snow is expected to develop during the early morning hours and continue through most of the day. This system is not packing a lot of energy, but with some luck, we may squeeze +4”of snow out it by the end of tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Cold air is expected to drop in from the north tomorrow. This will drop freezing levels well below Pass level for the middle of the week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 WNW
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will be breezy at times today. Northerly flow will begin tomorrow.
December 18, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/18/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Dry and clearing conditions will finish the day as pressure builds behind the cold front that moved through early this morning.
Long-term: Another weak front will bring a chance of light snow on Tuesday and then again on Friday with, yes, dry conditions in between. It seems that we will be stuck in this pattern through Christmas day and perhaps beyond.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
A drying trend began this morning and will last through tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 34 High: 30
Freezing level: +-4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will linger right around Pass level for the next few days. Cooler air from the north is expect to arrive mid week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 WNW
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will swing west then north through the next few days. A typical high pressure pattern.
General Discussion: Dry and clearing conditions will finish the day as pressure builds behind the cold front that moved through early this morning.
Long-term: Another weak front will bring a chance of light snow on Tuesday and then again on Friday with, yes, dry conditions in between. It seems that we will be stuck in this pattern through Christmas day and perhaps beyond.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
A drying trend began this morning and will last through tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 34 High: 30
Freezing level: +-4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will linger right around Pass level for the next few days. Cooler air from the north is expect to arrive mid week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 WNW
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will swing west then north through the next few days. A typical high pressure pattern.
December 17, 2011
Stevens Pass in Top Ten
Stevens Pass is one of the top 10 greenest ski areas in the country.
http://espn.go.com/action/freeskiing/story/_/id/7353596/10-greenest-ski-areas-2011
1. Squaw Valley, Calif.
2. Aspen Highlands, Colo.
3. Deer Valley, Utah
4. Park City, Utah
5. Alpine Meadows, Calif.
6. Aspen Mountain, Colo.
7. Buttermilk, Colo.
8. Stevens Pass, Wash.
9. Sundance, Utah
10. Sugar Bowl, Calif
http://espn.go.com/action/freeskiing/story/_/id/7353596/10-greenest-ski-areas-2011
1. Squaw Valley, Calif.
2. Aspen Highlands, Colo.
3. Deer Valley, Utah
4. Park City, Utah
5. Alpine Meadows, Calif.
6. Aspen Mountain, Colo.
7. Buttermilk, Colo.
8. Stevens Pass, Wash.
9. Sundance, Utah
10. Sugar Bowl, Calif
December 16, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/16/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Warm dry air will invade the Pass today as high pressure builds over the region. A weak cold front will bring a few more inches of snow on Sunday.
Long-term: These stubborn high pressure ridges will continue to push most of the storms north into Canada next week. The models completely disagree on the next 4-6 day outlook, so confidence is low on what to expect. As of now, there are no storms expected after Sunday’s cold front.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
A drying trend is underway as high pressure builds over the region.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 32 High: 42
Freezing level: 4000’ 7000’
Trend and Timing:
The cool air east of the crest has been pushed out by southerly flow. Expect high freezing levels to last through tomorrow. Cooler air expected on Sunday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 SW
Trend and Timing:
Light SW breezes will flow through the Pass through tomorrow.
General Discussion: Warm dry air will invade the Pass today as high pressure builds over the region. A weak cold front will bring a few more inches of snow on Sunday.
Long-term: These stubborn high pressure ridges will continue to push most of the storms north into Canada next week. The models completely disagree on the next 4-6 day outlook, so confidence is low on what to expect. As of now, there are no storms expected after Sunday’s cold front.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
A drying trend is underway as high pressure builds over the region.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 32 High: 42
Freezing level: 4000’ 7000’
Trend and Timing:
The cool air east of the crest has been pushed out by southerly flow. Expect high freezing levels to last through tomorrow. Cooler air expected on Sunday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 SW
Trend and Timing:
Light SW breezes will flow through the Pass through tomorrow.
December 15, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/15/2011 Weather
General Discussion: It is nice to see some new snow, even if it is just a few inches. These light snow showers will slowly come to and end as another high pressure ridge develops. Dry and warm conditions are expected to bring us through the weekend.
Long-term: A glimmer of hope. The long range models are starting to change their story with some potential storms tracking toward the PNW starting late Sunday. Keep dancing.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am= 0
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= 0-1
Trend and Timing:
These passing snow showers will become less frequent with an overall drying trend developing by tomorrow evening. Saturday will be dry and warm.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will reach Pass level tomorrow morning. Freezing levels could reach as high as 8000’ on Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow through Saturday.
General Discussion: It is nice to see some new snow, even if it is just a few inches. These light snow showers will slowly come to and end as another high pressure ridge develops. Dry and warm conditions are expected to bring us through the weekend.
Long-term: A glimmer of hope. The long range models are starting to change their story with some potential storms tracking toward the PNW starting late Sunday. Keep dancing.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am= 0
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= 0-1
Trend and Timing:
These passing snow showers will become less frequent with an overall drying trend developing by tomorrow evening. Saturday will be dry and warm.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will reach Pass level tomorrow morning. Freezing levels could reach as high as 8000’ on Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow through Saturday.
December 14, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/14/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A system tracking in from the north will bring some light snow to the mountains tonight and tomorrow.
Long-term: A high pressure ridge will start building tomorrow evening. This will keep any moisture to the north and bring dry and warm conditions to the mountains for the weekend. Freezing levels are expected to reach 5000’ late Friday and remain above Pass level through the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 1-3
Trend and Timing:
Light snow will develop after noon today and continue through noon tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 2000’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly rise through the next 24 hrs. East flow will help keep surface temperatures below freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow should hang in there through most of the night. Westerly winds are expected to take over tomorrow.
General Discussion: A system tracking in from the north will bring some light snow to the mountains tonight and tomorrow.
Long-term: A high pressure ridge will start building tomorrow evening. This will keep any moisture to the north and bring dry and warm conditions to the mountains for the weekend. Freezing levels are expected to reach 5000’ late Friday and remain above Pass level through the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 1-3
Trend and Timing:
Light snow will develop after noon today and continue through noon tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 2000’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly rise through the next 24 hrs. East flow will help keep surface temperatures below freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow should hang in there through most of the night. Westerly winds are expected to take over tomorrow.
December 13, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/13/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Clouds will continue to thicken today as a weak system slides in from the north.
Long-term: A weak low pressure system developing off the BC coast will produce a few inches of snow late tomorrow night and Thursday. High pressure is expected to develop on Friday for a dry and warm weekend. Persistent high pressure will probably keep storms north of the PNW through most of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= < .10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= trace - 1
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will be likely through noon tomorrow. A few inches of snow will be possible late tomorrow night and Thursday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 28
Freezing level: 1500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
The cold air settled in the eastern basin will eventually lose the battle from the warmer air moving in from the west. Freezing levels are expected to rise to 3500’ tonight. Freezing levels above 4500’ will be likely over the weekend.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Southerly flow moving up the east slope will give way to westerly flow later today.
General Discussion: Clouds will continue to thicken today as a weak system slides in from the north.
Long-term: A weak low pressure system developing off the BC coast will produce a few inches of snow late tomorrow night and Thursday. High pressure is expected to develop on Friday for a dry and warm weekend. Persistent high pressure will probably keep storms north of the PNW through most of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= < .10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= trace - 1
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will be likely through noon tomorrow. A few inches of snow will be possible late tomorrow night and Thursday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 28
Freezing level: 1500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
The cold air settled in the eastern basin will eventually lose the battle from the warmer air moving in from the west. Freezing levels are expected to rise to 3500’ tonight. Freezing levels above 4500’ will be likely over the weekend.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Southerly flow moving up the east slope will give way to westerly flow later today.
December 12, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/12/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Brr. These cold temperatures will stick around for the next few days. Warmer temperatures and a chance of snow is expected later in the week.
Long-term: Our next chance of snow will be Wednesday/Thursday as a small low pressure system develops off of the BC coast. High pressure will once again bring a dry period for the weekend. The jet stream is expected to shift south over the PNW during the week. With some luck, this will take us into the Holiday season with some new snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
No measurable precipitation is expected until late Wednesday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 1500’ - 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will stay around the 2000’ level through Tuesday. A warming trend will show up on Wednesday with the arrival of our next frontal system.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
Cool NE winds aloft will keep east flow at the surface moving through the Pass for the next few days.
General Discussion: Brr. These cold temperatures will stick around for the next few days. Warmer temperatures and a chance of snow is expected later in the week.
Long-term: Our next chance of snow will be Wednesday/Thursday as a small low pressure system develops off of the BC coast. High pressure will once again bring a dry period for the weekend. The jet stream is expected to shift south over the PNW during the week. With some luck, this will take us into the Holiday season with some new snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
No measurable precipitation is expected until late Wednesday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 1500’ - 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will stay around the 2000’ level through Tuesday. A warming trend will show up on Wednesday with the arrival of our next frontal system.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
Cool NE winds aloft will keep east flow at the surface moving through the Pass for the next few days.
December 11, 2011
Jet Stream Watch
The long range models have the northern jet shifting south next week. This has promise in establishing a nice NW storm track later next week.
December 10, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/10/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Clouds will thicken today as a weak system makes its way to the mountains. Another high pressure ridge will bring clear and cool conditions back tomorrow.
Long-term: Another weak system is expected to move through on Tuesday with high pressure building in behind it for another dry period. Our pattern is changing however, there is not a lot of energy associated with these approaching storms. So as of now, we will be lucky to pick up a few inches on Tuesday and then again later in the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= < .10
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= Trace
Trend and Timing:
Some light snow showers will be likely during the early morning hours. Clear and dry conditions will finish out the day tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 28
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will descend from the north allowing freezing levels to dip to +- 2000’ for the remainder of the weekend. Cold temperatures are expected to continue into next week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 WNW
Trend and Timing:
The air flow through the pass will continue its swing to a NW pattern today. East flow is expected on Monday.
General Discussion: Clouds will thicken today as a weak system makes its way to the mountains. Another high pressure ridge will bring clear and cool conditions back tomorrow.
Long-term: Another weak system is expected to move through on Tuesday with high pressure building in behind it for another dry period. Our pattern is changing however, there is not a lot of energy associated with these approaching storms. So as of now, we will be lucky to pick up a few inches on Tuesday and then again later in the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= < .10
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= Trace
Trend and Timing:
Some light snow showers will be likely during the early morning hours. Clear and dry conditions will finish out the day tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 28
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will descend from the north allowing freezing levels to dip to +- 2000’ for the remainder of the weekend. Cold temperatures are expected to continue into next week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 WNW
Trend and Timing:
The air flow through the pass will continue its swing to a NW pattern today. East flow is expected on Monday.
December 9, 2011
East West Temperature Difference
Impressive temperature difference west of the crest vs east of the crest. High freezing levels with low surface temperatures due to east flow influence.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/9/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Another amazing sunny day in the mountains.
Long-term: The high pressure is slowly degrading (agonizingly slow) which should open the door to a pattern change starting late in the weekend. There is a storm of interest heading our way sometime during the middle of next week , but it is still too far out to have much confidence in the details.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
High pressure will keep the atmosphere stable through tomorrow. Some light snow is expected to make its way to the mountain on Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 7000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to 7000’ just west of the crest today. Freezing levels will begin to descend tomorrow as cool NW flow develops. Freezing levels are expected to reach 2000’ or lower over the weekend.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue to move through the Pass for most of the day. Light mountain winds will swing SW to N through the weekend.
General Discussion: Another amazing sunny day in the mountains.
Long-term: The high pressure is slowly degrading (agonizingly slow) which should open the door to a pattern change starting late in the weekend. There is a storm of interest heading our way sometime during the middle of next week , but it is still too far out to have much confidence in the details.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
High pressure will keep the atmosphere stable through tomorrow. Some light snow is expected to make its way to the mountain on Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 7000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to 7000’ just west of the crest today. Freezing levels will begin to descend tomorrow as cool NW flow develops. Freezing levels are expected to reach 2000’ or lower over the weekend.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue to move through the Pass for most of the day. Light mountain winds will swing SW to N through the weekend.
December 8, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/8/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The high pressure cell that has been parked off of the coast is expected to drift east over the state today and then begin to degrade. This will continue the dry weather but with warmer temperatures for the next few days.
Long-term: As the high pressure degrades and moves east, it will allow the northern jet to shift south. This is expected to open the door for a more activity weather pattern starting sometime over the weekend. Next week is looking more promising with each model series. Keep thinking snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Dry conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the week.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 36+
Freezing level: 4000’ 6500’
Trend and Timing:
With the aid of the sun and rising freezing levels, surface temperature could reach the 40f today and tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to fall below pass level on Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 ENE
Trend and Timing:
These light winds will shift easterly today. Light easterly flow is expected to continue through tomorrow.
General Discussion: The high pressure cell that has been parked off of the coast is expected to drift east over the state today and then begin to degrade. This will continue the dry weather but with warmer temperatures for the next few days.
Long-term: As the high pressure degrades and moves east, it will allow the northern jet to shift south. This is expected to open the door for a more activity weather pattern starting sometime over the weekend. Next week is looking more promising with each model series. Keep thinking snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Dry conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the week.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 36+
Freezing level: 4000’ 6500’
Trend and Timing:
With the aid of the sun and rising freezing levels, surface temperature could reach the 40f today and tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to fall below pass level on Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 ENE
Trend and Timing:
These light winds will shift easterly today. Light easterly flow is expected to continue through tomorrow.
December 7, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/7/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Not much has changed in the weather arena. So more of the same – early morning fog, sun, clears nights. Warmer air is expected by Friday.
Long-term: Long range models do have the high pressure system moving east (hence the warmer air) on Friday and the northern jet stream trending south. This is hopefully the change we need to start to bring winter storms our way.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
This morning fog should burn off today with clear conditions continuing through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 26
Freezing level: 2500-3500’
Trend and Timing:
Pockets of cool air will allow the freezing levels to fluctuate between 2500’ and 3500’ for the next 24hrs. Warm air is expected to bring freezing levels above Pass level tomorrow evening. Freezing levels are expected to continue their ascent on Friday with freezing levels rising to 7000’ or higher.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 NE
Trend and Timing:
Light pressure gradients will bring stagnate air through the night. East flow will develop tomorrow.
General Discussion: Not much has changed in the weather arena. So more of the same – early morning fog, sun, clears nights. Warmer air is expected by Friday.
Long-term: Long range models do have the high pressure system moving east (hence the warmer air) on Friday and the northern jet stream trending south. This is hopefully the change we need to start to bring winter storms our way.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
This morning fog should burn off today with clear conditions continuing through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 26
Freezing level: 2500-3500’
Trend and Timing:
Pockets of cool air will allow the freezing levels to fluctuate between 2500’ and 3500’ for the next 24hrs. Warm air is expected to bring freezing levels above Pass level tomorrow evening. Freezing levels are expected to continue their ascent on Friday with freezing levels rising to 7000’ or higher.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 NE
Trend and Timing:
Light pressure gradients will bring stagnate air through the night. East flow will develop tomorrow.
December 6, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/6/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The high pressure system firmly parked off of the PNW coast will continue to produce dry and cool weather.
Long-term: With the exception of a few weak systems sneaking in from the north, this dry pattern will continue through the weekend. There are some early signs of change next week - keep the faith.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= lt .10
24hr total “of water = lt.10
24hr Snow Total= 0-trace
Trend and Timing:
There will be a slight chance of some light snow tomorrow - but it will be very light and brief if anything. Nothing significant expected.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly fall as cooler air filters in from the north. Higher freezing levels are expected on Friday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 NW
Trend and Timing:
Light NW flow will continue through early Thursday morning.
General Discussion: The high pressure system firmly parked off of the PNW coast will continue to produce dry and cool weather.
Long-term: With the exception of a few weak systems sneaking in from the north, this dry pattern will continue through the weekend. There are some early signs of change next week - keep the faith.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am= lt .10
24hr total “of water = lt.10
24hr Snow Total= 0-trace
Trend and Timing:
There will be a slight chance of some light snow tomorrow - but it will be very light and brief if anything. Nothing significant expected.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly fall as cooler air filters in from the north. Higher freezing levels are expected on Friday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 NW
Trend and Timing:
Light NW flow will continue through early Thursday morning.
December 5, 2011
December 4, 2011
December 3, 2011
Pesky High Pressure
The high pressure cell spinning out younder will wobble around through most of next week. It doesn't seem to be weakening as quick as earlier thought. The center of the high is quite a ways off shore - this is allowing northerly flow to slide down the coast - this is the reason that clouds are forming along the crest and some unstable atmospheric conditions exist. Not to mention these brisk winds. Burrrr.
Note where the center (169) of the high is and the cooler northerly flow along the PNW interior.
Note where the center (169) of the high is and the cooler northerly flow along the PNW interior.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/3/2011 Weather
General Discussion: If you can’t have powder, it might as well be sunny. I hope you are able to get outside and enjoy.
Long-term: The strong high pressure cell spinning off of the coast will continue to dominate this dry weather pattern through all of next week. There will be some weak disturbance tracking down the BC coast that may bring some dusting of snow, but for now, all of next week looks dry.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Dry for the remainder of the weekend.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 30
Freezing level: 2500- 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover around the 3000’ level. Good daytime radiation and night time cooling, will allow for a nice spread between high and low surface temperatures.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 ENE
Trend and Timing:
Light ENE flow will continue through the weekend.
General Discussion: If you can’t have powder, it might as well be sunny. I hope you are able to get outside and enjoy.
Long-term: The strong high pressure cell spinning off of the coast will continue to dominate this dry weather pattern through all of next week. There will be some weak disturbance tracking down the BC coast that may bring some dusting of snow, but for now, all of next week looks dry.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Dry for the remainder of the weekend.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 30
Freezing level: 2500- 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover around the 3000’ level. Good daytime radiation and night time cooling, will allow for a nice spread between high and low surface temperatures.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 ENE
Trend and Timing:
Light ENE flow will continue through the weekend.
December 2, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/2/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The high pressure system, sitting off the PNW coast, shifted slightly to the east last night. This shift allowed some cool, unstable air to makes its way south, hence the dusting of snow. These small weak disturbances with periods of sun shine will be the pattern through the weekend.
Long-term: With the exception of few disturbances hanging around, this dry weather pattern is expected to continue into and possible through next week. A change is anticipated by the middle of next week with a more active winter weather pattern hopeful by next weekend.
Another point of interest is that the same large high pressure system off our coast is also responsible for the record breaking Santa Ana winds in California. Impressive 180mph east winds pouring of the Sierra Mountains.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= trace
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = lt .10
24hr Snow Total= trace
Trend and Timing:
Some very weak showers will be likely. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 30
Freezing level: 2500’ - 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fluctuate between 2500’ and 4000’ through tomorrow. Northerly flow coupled with clear nights could allow surface temperatures to dip into the teens. Diurnal fluctuations above and below freezing for you snow and weather geeks.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 N
Trend and Timing:
Northerly flow will shift NW during the next 24hrs. East slopes will continue to see some gusty winds due to the temperature gradients.
General Discussion: The high pressure system, sitting off the PNW coast, shifted slightly to the east last night. This shift allowed some cool, unstable air to makes its way south, hence the dusting of snow. These small weak disturbances with periods of sun shine will be the pattern through the weekend.
Long-term: With the exception of few disturbances hanging around, this dry weather pattern is expected to continue into and possible through next week. A change is anticipated by the middle of next week with a more active winter weather pattern hopeful by next weekend.
Another point of interest is that the same large high pressure system off our coast is also responsible for the record breaking Santa Ana winds in California. Impressive 180mph east winds pouring of the Sierra Mountains.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= trace
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = lt .10
24hr Snow Total= trace
Trend and Timing:
Some very weak showers will be likely. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 30
Freezing level: 2500’ - 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fluctuate between 2500’ and 4000’ through tomorrow. Northerly flow coupled with clear nights could allow surface temperatures to dip into the teens. Diurnal fluctuations above and below freezing for you snow and weather geeks.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 N
Trend and Timing:
Northerly flow will shift NW during the next 24hrs. East slopes will continue to see some gusty winds due to the temperature gradients.
December 1, 2011
Isotachs
Isotach is a meteorology term referring to winds of equal speeds in the upper atmosphere. You can think of them like contour lines for the jet stream. Isotach models are useful for trying to get a sense of longer range (+5 days) storm tracks potential. Below is a Isotach model for early next week. Notice the contours lines flattening and beginning to shift to a NW orientation. This will be something to watch for the next few days.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
12/1/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The large high pressure cell circulating off the PNW coast will continue to produce dry and sunny weather over the Cascades Mountains through the weekend.
Long-term: Long range predication models start to show signs of the northern jet shifting to a NW orientation early next week. This will be our next best chance to get some winter storms heading our way.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Sunny dry days and clear nights will continue through the weekend. Morning fog and/or inversion layers may be likely.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 40
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Warm air will invade from the west today allowing freezing levels to rise to or above 5000’. Cool air from the north will bring progressively cooler temperatures to the mountains starting tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 WNW
Trend and Timing:
NW flow will be breezy at times influenced by a small system in Canada. No significant wind event expected until this high pressure breaks down early next week.
General Discussion: The large high pressure cell circulating off the PNW coast will continue to produce dry and sunny weather over the Cascades Mountains through the weekend.
Long-term: Long range predication models start to show signs of the northern jet shifting to a NW orientation early next week. This will be our next best chance to get some winter storms heading our way.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Sunny dry days and clear nights will continue through the weekend. Morning fog and/or inversion layers may be likely.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 40
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Warm air will invade from the west today allowing freezing levels to rise to or above 5000’. Cool air from the north will bring progressively cooler temperatures to the mountains starting tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 WNW
Trend and Timing:
NW flow will be breezy at times influenced by a small system in Canada. No significant wind event expected until this high pressure breaks down early next week.
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